宏观：2025资本支出之年-市场关注今年的资本支出激增能否在 2026 年转化为增长-2025_ The year of capex_ Markets watch to see if this year‘s capex surge will amount to growth in 2026.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses macroeconomic trends and forecasts for various regions, including the US, Europe, UK, Japan, and China, with a focus on inflation, interest rates, and economic growth projections. Core Insights and Arguments - Capex Surge in 2025: There is an expectation that the surge in capital expenditures (capex) in 2025 will lead to growth in 2026, particularly driven by advancements in AI technology [1] - AI's Economic Impact: AI is reshaping the global economy, driving trillions in investment and transforming industries, with stocks poised to benefit from increased AI spending and easing financial conditions [3] - US Retail Sales: October retail sales in the US showed positive signs, indicating solid consumer spending in Q4, which supports the view of two 25 basis point cuts by the FOMC in 2026 [4] - European Investment Needs: Europe is expected to invest to accelerate AI adoption and improve governance, but growth may still fall short, with inflation projected to remain below 2% [5] - UK Inflation Trends: The UK saw a slowdown in CPI inflation to 3.2% in November, leading to a revision of the inflation forecast down by 12 basis points [6] - Japan's Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise rates to 1.25% by December 2026, with two hikes anticipated in 2026 [39] Additional Important Insights - US Employment Trends: Payroll employment showed fluctuations, with a decrease in October followed by an increase in November, indicating underlying strength in the private sector [15] - China's Economic Indicators: There has been a sharp deterioration in domestic demand indicators in China, highlighting potential economic challenges ahead [10] - Credit Market Outlook: The US credit market is expected to remain stable, with risk-controlled returns anticipated in 2026, while Asia credit has performed well, generating a total return of 7.96% [32] - Inflation Forecasts: The core CPI forecast for December 2025 has been revised down to 2.7% y/y, while the forecast for December 2026 is slightly higher at 2.9% y/y [39] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on macroeconomic trends, industry impacts, and specific forecasts for various regions.