地产数据监测：中国内地新房销售同比下降 45%；香港房价年初至今上涨 5%-Property Data Monitor_ Mainland China_ Primary sales down 45% Y_Y; HK_ Home prices up 5% YTD

Summary of J.P. Morgan Property Data Monitor Industry Overview - Industry: Real Estate in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR - Key Focus: Primary and secondary property sales, home prices, and market indicators Mainland China Insights - Primary Sales: - 60-city primary sales registrations decreased by 45% year-over-year (Y/Y), improving from a previous decline of 49% [4] - Secondary Sales: - 12-city secondary sales registrations fell by 22% Y/Y, an improvement from 26% [4] - Market Indicators: - Centaline tier-1 cities secondary asking price index increased slightly from 17.3 to 17.7, remaining low since May 2024 [4] - Centaline manager confidence index rose from 46 to 48 [4] - Share Price Performance: - The sector dropped by 2% last week, underperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) which rose by 1% [4] - Notable performers included Greentown Service (+2%), Vanke, and Jinmao (+1%), while Country Garden fell by 8% [4] - Top Picks: - J.P. Morgan's top picks include CR Land, CR Mixc, and Jinmao, with a focus on higher beta in a policy-induced rally [4] Hong Kong SAR Insights - Home Prices: - The home price index increased by 1.1% week-over-week (W/W), reaching the highest level since May 2024, with a 5% increase year-to-date [4] - Expected further growth of 5-7% in 2026 [4] - Centa Valuation Index (CVI): - The CVI remained elevated at 74.3, indicating banks are revising property valuations upwards [4] - New Launches: - Grand Mayfair III launched a batch of 125 units with an average selling price (ASP) of HK$15.6K, selling 28% of the units [4] - One Park Place released a price list for 118 units at HK$15.9K psf, with 73% of the previous batch sold [4] - Secondary Transactions: - Secondary transactions in the top 35 estates dropped by 1% W/W, totaling 73 units [4] - Share Price Performance: - The sector was flat last week, underperforming the HSI (+1%), with outperformers including Champion REIT and NWD (both +5%) [5] Additional Insights - Tourist Arrivals: - Total tourist arrivals showed a 4% increase week-over-week, with a 6% increase year-over-year [52] - Market Sentiment: - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with significant declines in primary sales indicating potential risks in the real estate sector [4][5] This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Property Data Monitor, highlighting the current state of the real estate market in Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, along with critical indicators and performance metrics.