美国应用软件：2025 年三季度静默期总结 -聚焦 AI 贡献与 2026 年展望-US Application Software_ 3Q25 Quiet Period Round-Up_ Focus on AI Contribution and ‘26 Outlooks

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: US Application Software - Key Focus: AI contribution and outlook for 2026 - Demand Environment: Stable yet uncertain, with some relief from US government re-opening [1][11] Core Insights - AI Adoption: Companies are actively adopting AI products and monetization strategies, with a focus on AI-driven acceleration stories and cloud migration support [1][11] - Investor Sentiment: Investors are expected to focus on early indicators for 2026, looking for realistic acceleration opportunities [11] - Company Performance: Incremental positive outlook for BlackLine (BL) and Workiva (WK) [1] Company-Specific Insights Automation & Collaboration (DBX, MNDY, OTEX, PEGA) - PEGA: Recognized as a leader with a unique Blueprint strategy enhancing go-to-market efficiency and legacy app replacement [2] - MNDY: Mixed top-of-funnel traffic from search; recovery in traffic was temporary [2][37] - DBX: Largely unaffected by market concerns, but SMB purchase activity remains a concern [2] Financials & Supply Chain (BL, INTA, MANH, OS, ROP, VERX, WK) - Cloud Migration: Accelerated by ERP transformation and AI readiness [3] - Execution Risks: Some companies face execution and demand backdrop questions [3] HR Software (PAYC, PCTY) - Investor Sentiment: Depressed due to macro/AI impact concerns on payroll models [4] - PCTY: Stronger execution noted with a broader product scope [4] Target Price Adjustments - MANH: Target price adjusted to $200 from $204 due to lower margins and updated valuation [5] - MNDY: Target price lowered to $293 from $319 due to lower revenue and FX headwinds [5] - INTA: Target price raised to $49 from $46 based on updated billings seasonality [5] - OS: Target price adjusted to $24 from $25 [5] - OTEX: Target price lowered to $36 from $38 [5] - PAYC: Target price adjusted to $185 from $191 [5] - PCTY: Target price raised to $179 from $175 [5] Analyst Rankings - Top Picks: PEGA, WK, and ROP identified as having acceleration potential supported by AI rollouts [13] - PEGA: Rated as a buy with a target price of $81.00, reflecting attractive valuation and enterprise automation focus [14] - WK: Rated as a buy with a target price of $113.00, highlighting stable core business and consolidation opportunities [14] - ROP: Rated as a buy with a target price of $575.00, emphasizing operational capabilities and organic growth potential [14] Additional Insights - BlackLine (BL): Noted competitive landscape challenges with AI-native accounting software; progress in invoice-to-cash processes [18] - Dropbox (DBX): Recent management changes with a new CFO; focus on improving execution and retention through new product features [23][24] - Intapp (INTA): Conservative guidance and evolving pricing models to incentivize cloud migration [28][30] - Manhattan Associates (MANH): Insights into the cloud renewal cycle and expectations for 20%+ cloud growth [33][34] Conclusion The US Application Software industry is navigating a stable yet uncertain demand backdrop, with significant focus on AI adoption and cloud migration. Companies are adjusting their strategies and target prices in response to market conditions, while investor sentiment remains cautious but optimistic about future growth opportunities.