特斯拉：预测 2025 年四季度交付量达 41.5 万辆-（卖出）

Summary of Tesla, Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tesla, Inc. - Industry: Automobile Manufacturers - Market Capitalization: $1,697 billion as of December 22, 2025 [4] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue Forecasts: - 2025E: $93.966 billion - 2026E: $96.390 billion - 2027E: $111.682 billion - 2028E: $133.979 billion - 2029E: $167.549 billion [3] - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT): - 2025E: $6.101 billion - 2026E: $5.509 billion - 2027E: $7.058 billion - 2028E: $10.409 billion - 2029E: $19.292 billion [3] - Net Earnings: - 2025E: $5.403 billion - 2026E: $5.556 billion - 2027E: $6.875 billion - 2028E: $9.641 billion - 2029E: $16.797 billion [3] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2025E: $1.53 - 2026E: $1.58 - 2027E: $1.95 [5] Delivery Forecasts - 4Q25 Deliveries: Forecasted at 415,000, which is a decrease of 16% year-over-year and 17% quarter-over-quarter, and approximately 5% below consensus [2][6] - 2025 Total Deliveries: Expected to be 1.63 million, a decline of 9% year-over-year [7] - 2026 Deliveries: Expected to be relatively flat at 1.64 million, approximately 10% below consensus [7] Regional Performance Insights - United States: - Anticipated significant decline in sales due to the expiration of the $7.5k EV consumer tax credit, with expectations of over 35% decline quarter-over-quarter and around 25% year-over-year [6] - Normalized demand expected to stabilize around 40,000 units per month [10] - Europe: - Deliveries in the top 8 markets are expected to increase by approximately 31% quarter-over-quarter but decrease by about 15% year-over-year, with a total of around 70,000 deliveries for the quarter [6] - China: - Expected to see a quarter-over-quarter increase but a year-over-year decline, potentially down 10% [6] - Retail deliveries for the first two months of the quarter are up 1% quarter-over-quarter but down 13% year-over-year [18] Market Dynamics - Impact of Tax Credits: The expiration of the EV tax credit in the US has led to a significant drop in demand, indicating that the market may be shifting focus from delivery numbers to developments in autonomous driving technologies [6] - Promotional Strategies: Tesla is offering financing options such as 0% APR on certain models to stimulate demand [10] Valuation Metrics - Price Target: $247.00 with a current price of $481.20 [4] - P/E Ratio: 64.4 for 2025E [4] - EBIT Margin: Expected to decline from 18.7% in 2022 to 6.5% in 2025E [3] Conclusion Tesla is facing significant challenges in the near term, particularly in the US market due to the expiration of tax incentives. The company is expected to see a decline in deliveries and profitability metrics in the upcoming quarters. However, there are signs of recovery in Europe and potential for growth in the EV market share in 2026. The focus may increasingly shift towards technological advancements rather than just delivery numbers.