内外兼修-2026年宏观经济与资本市场展望

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Global Manufacturing and Export Trends: The global manufacturing sector is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, which will support China's exports. The U.S. inventory cycle is entering a replenishment phase, and the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates, which will further boost global industrial production and, consequently, Chinese exports [4][24]. Core Insights and Arguments - Impact of U.S. Tariffs: China has gained significant experience in mitigating the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs, leading to a stable export growth despite tariff increases. Future tariff impacts are expected to diminish further [5]. - Outbound Capacity Strategy: The current strategy for outbound capacity focuses on "Belt and Road" countries, aiming to find new demand growth points rather than indiscriminate expansion. This approach is expected to enhance brand penetration and positively impact domestic capital goods and intermediate goods exports [6]. - Real Estate Market Adjustments: The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with a negative contribution to fixed asset investment. However, the rate of decline is expected to narrow, although falling property prices and deteriorating household balance sheets may suppress consumer spending [7][8]. - Durable Goods Subsidy Policy: The effectiveness of the durable goods subsidy policy is likely to weaken, with recent data showing a negative contribution due to high base effects. Long-term demand may be overstretched, leading to diminishing returns from such policies [10]. - Consumer Spending Dynamics: The adjustment in the real estate market affects consumer spending through reduced income and wealth effects. Data indicates a decline in residents' willingness to repay loans and an increase in savings, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [9]. Additional Important Insights - Fiscal Policy Challenges: Broad fiscal revenues are under pressure, with local government debt risks increasing. Central government borrowing is seen as a necessary measure to counteract economic downturns and facilitate fiscal reforms [14][18]. - Future Economic Growth Targets: The average GDP growth target before 2035 is set at approximately 4.17%. Short-term adjustments to growth targets for 2026 may occur to alleviate growth constraints [2][19]. - Investment Focus Areas: Future investments should prioritize industrial investments over physical assets, with a focus on early-stage technology projects. The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, potentially involving rate cuts [23][24]. - Service Sector Growth Potential: There is significant potential for growth in service sectors such as education, healthcare, and elder care, which are expected to become key drivers of domestic demand in the coming years [12][24]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for 2026 indicates a supportive environment for exports and service consumption, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate economic growth. The emphasis on strategic investments and service sector development will be crucial for sustaining economic momentum in the face of existing challenges.