2026Q1煤炭供应是否会出现-开门红

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the coal industry, specifically regarding the supply of raw coal in the first quarter of 2026 and its implications for investment opportunities. Key Points and Arguments - Since 2021, to ensure the supply of electricity coal, there has been an increase in raw coal production in four out of the last five years during the first quarter, contrasting with a decline during the supply-side reform period from 2016 to 2020 [1][3] - In Q1 2021, an unexpected increase in production was driven by a cold winter and heightened domestic and international demand, leading major production areas to increase load and work multiple shifts to meet demand [1][3] - The implementation of overproduction checks in July 2025 and the central economic work conference's emphasis on stabilizing prices and addressing excessive competition suggest that the elasticity of raw coal supply will be limited in Q1 2026, with a modest year-on-year increase expected [1][4] - Data from CCTD indicates that capacity utilization rates in January are typically lower than in December, suggesting that Q4 is usually the peak of the year, making it difficult to maintain high levels into Q1 [1][5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Growth and Defensive Stocks: Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Chemical, and Electric Power Investment, which are expected to have reasonable valuations and high dividends even at coal prices between 700-750 RMB/ton [1][6] - Stable Dividend Stocks: China Coal, Shanxi Coal, and Shenhua, which are seeing gradual improvements in dividend value [1][6] - If demand exceeds expectations, low-valuation stocks with limited shares and low profit margins such as Huayang, Jinkong, Lu'an, and Pingmei are also worth considering, especially in a low-price off-season with anticipated supply-demand improvements [2][6] Additional Important Insights - The policy environment is identified as a critical factor influencing the year-on-year changes in raw coal production, rather than seasonal patterns [3][4] - The potential for unexpected demand surges remains a consideration, as seen in previous years, but current policies are expected to constrain supply growth [3][4]