金银铜齐齐新高-周期怎么看

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Commodities - Recent strong performance in commodity prices, with gold surpassing 4,600 yuan, silver increasing by 11% to 80 USD, and LME copper stabilizing above 12,000 USD. Early year copper prices were below 75,000 yuan [2][7] - Short-term price fluctuations due to factors like silver delivery month squeeze, not driven by supply-demand improvements. Long-term outlook remains positive due to a weaker dollar and anticipated Fed rate cuts [2][7] - The current commodity cycle is influenced by international competition, differing from previous cycles driven by real estate and infrastructure [3][8] Aviation Sector - Positive outlook for the aviation sector in 2026, with New Year ticket prices up by 6-7% and passenger load factors increasing by 1-2%. Recovery in China-Japan-Korea routes noted [4] - Anticipated recovery in airline profitability to exceed 2019 levels due to extended holiday periods and improved travel demand [4] Express Delivery Industry - Jitu's stable growth in Southeast Asia, recommended as a stock with potential for doubling in three years. SF Express exited the Douyin return segment to protect profits, with a 30% increase in package volume but unfulfilled profit expectations [5][6] - Focus on bottoming SF Express stock, while waiting for data from other express companies for validation of growth potential [6] Non-Ferrous Metals - Positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector in 2026, though growth may not match 2025 levels. Current valuations are lower than in 2025, with high certainty of EPS recovery [10] - Energy metals remain undervalued, presenting investment opportunities [10] Coal Industry - Recent decline in coal prices, with the coal index down by 0.89%. However, coking coal fundamentals remain strong, with prices up 170 yuan per ton year-on-year [11][12] - High inventory levels suppress price rebounds, but potential stabilization due to weather factors is noted. Recommendations include investing in high-dividend coal companies [12] Core Insights and Arguments - The commodity price center is expected to rise long-term, supported by macroeconomic factors such as a weaker dollar and Fed rate cuts [2][7] - The aviation sector is projected to recover significantly, driven by increased travel demand and favorable pricing trends [4] - The express delivery market shows resilience, with specific companies like Jitu and SF Express highlighted for their growth potential [5][6] - Non-ferrous metals are positioned for a strong performance, with a focus on energy metals as attractive investment options [10] - The coal industry faces challenges with price declines but offers opportunities in high-dividend stocks amidst stable fundamentals [12] Additional Important Points - The equity market is not overheated, with P/E and P/B ratios at historical lows, indicating a favorable environment for investment [9] - The end of the current commodity cycle will depend on factors such as the restoration of dollar credit, supply chain restructuring, and domestic policies [8]