中国房地产_北京最新宽松政策或难有明显效果-China Property Latest easing in Beijing may not move the needle

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, particularly recent policy changes in Beijing aimed at supporting the housing sector [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Recent Policy Easing: - Beijing introduced a new round of policy support on December 24, 2025, which includes: - Relaxing home purchase restrictions (HPR) for non-locals, reducing tax proof requirements from 3 years to 2 years within the 5th Ring and from 2 years to 1 year outside the 5th Ring [3][7]. - Allowing families with multiple children to buy one additional home [3][7]. - Aligning mortgage rates for second homes with first homes, lowering the rate from 3.45% to 3.25% [3][7]. - Reducing the down payment ratio for second homes from 30% to 25% [3][7]. 2. Limited Impact of Measures: - Analysts believe these measures will have a limited impact on the housing market. The easing of HPR only removes hurdles but does not encourage home buying if price expectations remain unstable [3][4]. - Historical data shows that share price reactions to easing in tier-1 cities have been marginally positive, indicating a lack of investor excitement [1][4]. 3. Current Market Conditions: - Despite previous easing measures, the month-over-month decline in home prices in Beijing has accelerated, with secondary home prices dropping 1.8-2.1% monthly since July 2025 [3][4]. - Since the peak, Beijing's secondary home prices have decreased by 37%, with a 12% decline year-to-date [3][10]. 4. Top Developers: - The top three developers in Beijing for the first eleven months of 2025 were: - China Overseas Land (COLI) with sales of RMB 40.8 billion - CSCEC Zhidi with RMB 17.9 billion - CR Land with RMB 16.7 billion [3][7]. 5. Future Policy Expectations: - Following Beijing's easing, it is anticipated that Shanghai and Shenzhen will implement similar measures, likely within a month [3][4]. Additional Important Information - The perception among the public is shifting, with more people believing that policymakers may not mind if home prices fall, which could further erode homebuyer confidence [1][3]. - The report highlights that the effectiveness of the new measures hinges on the government's commitment to stabilizing home prices, which remains uncertain [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - Top Picks: CR Land, CR Mixc, and Jinmao are recommended for investment [1][3]. - Top Avoid: Vanke-H is advised against [1][3].