趋势观察25：CXO 25Q4趋势观察

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes pertain to the Clinical Research Organization (CRO) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) sectors, with a focus on the performance and trends in these industries for the fourth quarter of 2025 [1][2][6]. Key Insights and Arguments - New Orders and Pipeline Growth: The new order amount reflects an increase in the pipeline, with an expected growth of 20%-30% in new preclinical candidate compounds (PCC), driven by an innovation cycle [1][2]. - Rising Costs of Preclinical Toxicology Testing: The price of monkeys used in preclinical toxicology tests has surged from approximately 120,000 yuan to an expected 150,000 yuan due to a spike in demand, particularly for small nucleic acids and ADC antibody drugs. The independent testing schedule has been extended to after May 2026, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [1][3][4]. - Open Contracts: The re-emergence of open contracts means that if monkey prices rise during the period from order to execution, the buyer must pay the price at execution. This reflects the industry's bullish outlook on future prices and allows companies to extend schedules to manage supply-demand imbalances, potentially increasing operational costs [1][5]. - CRO Market Recovery: The clinical CRO market is showing signs of recovery, with discount limits rising from 40%-70% to 60%-80%, indicating reduced competition. Orders have achieved over 10% growth, and WuXi AppTec's decision to sell its clinical business is attributed to insufficient competitiveness in large clinical operations and low profit margins [1][6]. - CDMO Sector Performance: The CDMO sector performed reasonably well in Q4 2025, with strong demand from multinational corporations (MNCs) and moderate demand from biotech companies. The U.S. market is gradually improving, while the European market is performing even better, with overall performance aligning closely with third-quarter expectations [1][7][8]. - Order Trends in CDMO: The CDMO industry is meeting expectations, particularly in the large molecule sector, with rapid growth in ADC CDMO business. Domestic companies are showing strong growth in the ACCDM (Antibody-Drug Conjugate Development and Manufacturing) field, while small molecule CDMO companies are expanding into emerging businesses such as ADCs, peptides, and small nucleic acids, which are beginning to show incremental growth [1][9][13]. Additional Important Points - Impact of NBA Legislation: The NBA legislation's impact on domestic companies is mixed, with some European-focused companies reporting no effect on new orders. WuXi AppTec expresses more concern over tariff issues rather than the NBA legislation itself, indicating that tariffs are a more pressing risk factor [1][11]. - Inclusion in 160H List: WuXi AppTec's inclusion in the 160H list is attributed to its R&D capabilities rather than defense or genetic concerns. There are speculations about potential access to U.S. corporate trade secrets, but the actual impact appears minimal [1][12]. - MNC Influence on Orders: Companies with a higher proportion of MNCs typically exhibit better order performance, which is a common trend observed in the industry [1][10].