航空2026年展望 - 步步为营，峰回路转

Summary of Airline Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The airline industry is expected to experience a supply-demand reversal in 2026, with ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth projected at approximately 2.7%, lower than RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth of 5% due to aircraft capacity and engine issues leading to tight effective supply [1][2][3] - Boeing and Airbus are facing capacity bottlenecks, with delivery volumes below pre-pandemic levels and slow production increases, while COMAC's delivery volumes are insufficient to significantly fill the gap, exacerbating supply tightness [1][5][6] - A significant number of in-service aircraft are grounded due to issues with Pratt & Whitney engines, with maintenance cycles extending over two years, further intensifying the effective supply crunch [1][7][8] Demand and Capacity Insights - In 2025, aircraft utilization rates are expected to improve primarily due to rapid growth in international route capacity, but ASK growth is anticipated to slow to 2.7% in 2026, with an average growth rate below 3% over the next three years [1][10] - The demand for air travel in 2025 is projected to grow over 5% domestically, driven by strong private travel demand, while international demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate of around 20% [11] - The competitive landscape shows that high-speed rail is beginning to substitute for air travel, narrowing the growth gap between the two modes of transport, although air travel demand growth remains higher overall [12][13] Pricing and Revenue Projections - Despite a record high passenger load factor exceeding 85% in 2025, ticket prices are expected to decline by approximately 6% year-on-year, with a modest increase of 3-4% anticipated in 2026 [15][18] - The current valuation of airline stocks reflects historical average profit levels, but cyclical nature of the industry suggests that valuations should consider profit peaks, indicating potential for further upside in stock prices [4][21] Aircraft Manufacturing and Supply Chain Challenges - Boeing and Airbus are struggling with production capacity, with Boeing's monthly delivery targets significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, and Airbus also facing delays in meeting its production goals [5] - COMAC's delivery numbers are insufficient to alleviate the production shortfall, with a notable decline in deliveries of its ARJ21 and C919 aircraft [6] - The global supply chain issues are severely impacting the production capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers, leading to a prolonged recovery period [5][8] Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The airline industry is expected to enter a moderate growth cycle over the next few years, contrasting with previous sharp cycles, due to reduced aircraft orders and slow production increases [19] - Investment recommendations focus on large airline stocks, particularly those listed in H-shares, which are currently undervalued compared to their A-share counterparts. Specific recommendations include Huaxia Airlines, with a projected profit of approximately 900 million yuan in 2026, indicating a potential upside of 30-40% [25]