2026年海外宏观形势展望

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Macro Economic Outlook for 2026: The U.S. economy is expected to experience reduced policy uncertainty under the Trump administration, focusing on midterm elections, tariff adjustments, and social welfare policies. [1][5] - Impact of Tariff Policies: The Trump administration's tariffs have significantly increased fiscal revenue, with over $230 billion collected by the end of November, raising the average import tax rate to 11-12%. [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Economic Pressures on U.S. Citizens: Americans face multiple economic pressures, including rising costs in food, housing, childcare, healthcare, and utilities. Disposable income growth has not kept pace with living cost increases, leading to a "crisis of affordability." [1][12] - Consumer Confidence and Spending: Despite a rise in consumer spending, particularly in essential services, the increase does not correlate with consumer happiness due to high costs of necessities. [1][14] - Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy: The Fed has implemented three rate cuts in the latter half of 2025, with expectations of further cuts in 2026, aiming for a soft landing for the economy. [1][25][30] Additional Important Content - Tax Cuts and Fiscal Pressure: The "Great Beauty Act" is projected to result in $4.5 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade, exacerbating fiscal pressures despite some offset from tariff revenues. [1][11] - Risks in Technology Sector: The tech sector, particularly AI, faces risks from slow demand realization, rapid technological obsolescence, and liquidity issues, which could impact overall economic stability. [1][20][24] - Geopolitical Factors: The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-China relationship and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, will significantly influence economic conditions in 2026. [1][33] Conclusion The records highlight a complex interplay of economic policies, consumer behavior, and external factors shaping the U.S. economic landscape heading into 2026. The focus on tariffs, consumer pressures, and the Fed's monetary policy will be critical in determining future economic stability and growth.