钢铁行业2026年度投资策略

Steel Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The steel industry is expected to see profitability bottom out in Q3 2024, with overall earnings remaining below historical averages. The profit outlook for 2025 is poor, except for a few months in Q2 and Q3 [1][2] Key Points on Demand - Demand for steel in the real estate sector is expected to continue declining until 2026, although the rate of decline is narrowing. Manufacturing and exports are emerging as new growth drivers, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as machinery, home appliances, and new energy [1][3][4] - The overall steel consumption in the construction chain is stabilizing, with exports and manufacturing becoming critical growth points. Recent export license management policies may lead to some steel returning to the domestic market, affecting supply and inventory levels [1][6] Production and Cost Dynamics - There are discrepancies in growth rates and statistical data across different stages of steel production (pig iron, crude steel, and finished steel), leading to varied market expectations regarding raw material price support [1][5] - Upstream raw material prices (iron ore and coking coal) are severely squeezing the profitability of midstream steel producers. The potential for upstream concessions, such as the commissioning of the Simandou mine, could lower costs [1][7] Policy Impacts - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to improve supply-demand fundamentals and stabilize steel prices. The effectiveness of the 50 million ton production cut plan is crucial for market expectations [1][8] - The carbon emissions trading system will create significant differentiation among steel companies, with those holding excess quotas able to profit from selling them, while those lacking quotas will face increased costs [1][11] Environmental and Regulatory Trends - The steel industry is entering a phase of stricter environmental and energy consumption management, with policies expected to be fully implemented by the end of 2025. The year 2026 will be critical for assessing the effectiveness of these measures [1][9][10] Investment Opportunities - In 2026, leading companies like Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Hesteel have already seen valuation increases due to their strong performance in product demand and cost management. However, second-tier companies with production capacities of 10-20 million tons, which have historically underperformed, may present significant investment opportunities if they can reduce production costs by 100-200 RMB per ton, potentially doubling their profits [1][12][13]