固收｜资金驱动下的年末配置

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the fixed income market dynamics and government bond issuance in China, particularly focusing on the year-end market conditions and projections for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Conditions: The year-end market in 2025 is characterized by a pure allocation strategy, primarily driven by insurance companies and large banks, with low trading activity. Insurance institutions have pre-allocated 30-year local bonds, but as yields decline, their focus has shifted to older government bonds [1][3][4]. - Liquidity and Borrowing Costs: The liquidity stratification phenomenon has resulted in high borrowing costs for non-bank institutions, limiting their ability to engage in leveraged trading. Despite a low overnight rate of 1.25%, these institutions face challenges in participating in short-term market activities [2][4][5]. - Government Bond Issuance: The National Financial Work Conference has proposed optimizing the government bond tool mix, indicating potential for more diversified and flexible government bond products to meet varying investor needs and enhance market liquidity and efficiency [1][6]. - Fiscal Strategy: The focus of fiscal policy is on effective fund utilization through bond issuance rather than on market interest rate risks. Central fiscal measures may include transfer payments to alleviate local fiscal pressures and promote physical investments [1][8]. - Bond Issuance Timeline: The issuance of government bonds will not significantly change due to market absorption capacity. It is expected that the issuance of ultra-long bonds (10 years and above) in 2026 will remain no less than 6.5 trillion yuan, indicating limited overall impact [1][9]. Additional Important Content - Communication Between Fiscal and Central Bank: There exists a communication mechanism between the fiscal authority and the central bank, which influences the issuance of long-term bonds. A high volume of ultra-long bond issuance suggests central bank support, while a reduction in issuance may indicate limited backing [1][11]. - Future Market Logic: The market logic is expected to change significantly entering 2026, with large banks shifting focus to credit work and an increase in local bond supply. This necessitates a reassessment of market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][12]. - Temporary Measures for Interest Rate Risks: Current measures to address interest rate risks are not systemic and include increasing bond issuance and targeted central bank support. These are seen as short-term solutions rather than long-term strategies [1][10].