汽车-财政释放信心-2026政策及车市展望

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive market in 2025 is expected to benefit from scrapping and replacement subsidy policies, leading to significant sales growth, particularly in A00 and A0 level electric vehicles, with sales increases of 60% and 80% respectively, and over 11 million subsidized vehicles, including approximately 4 million from scrapping and 6 million from replacement [1][2][3] - The wholesale sales growth in Q4 2025, although slowing, remains positive with September growth at 14%, October at 8.8%, and November at approximately 3%, indicating market resilience [1][4] Key Policy Insights - The government will continue the scrapping and replacement subsidy policies into 2026, with potential increases in subsidy amounts and a shift to proportional subsidies based on vehicle price to achieve a high-level dynamic balance of supply and demand, with specific plans expected to be announced soon [1][5] - The total subsidy budget for 2025 increased from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan, with expectations for continued support in 2026 despite predictions of negative growth in the domestic automotive market [2][10] Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is projected to exceed 50% for the first time in 2025, with expectations to stabilize above 50% in 2026, potentially reaching around 1.9 million units sold, although a bottleneck may occur around 70% penetration [2][11][12] - The government has implemented measures to curb excessive competition in the automotive market, including price guidelines and regulations on second-hand vehicle exports, which are expected to prevent malicious price competition in 2026 [9][10] Consumer Behavior and Preferences - There is a notable generational preference for vehicle types, with older generations favoring traditional fuel vehicles while younger consumers lean towards electric vehicles, influencing market dynamics [12][13] - The high-end market (vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan) is less sensitive to price, while low-end models (around 150,000 yuan) are more competitive due to lower operating costs of plug-in hybrid vehicles compared to fuel vehicles [14] Future Outlook - Despite general pessimism regarding the automotive market's growth in 2026, there is an optimistic outlook for a potential positive growth rate of around 3%, supported by favorable international relations and government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand [10][15] - The continuation of subsidy policies into the first quarter of 2026 is expected to have a mixed impact on sales, with potential fluctuations due to the timing of the Chinese New Year [15][16]