物流行业2026年度投资策略

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The logistics industry is experiencing a transformation driven by the reshaping of global supply chains, with Chinese logistics companies expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, creating new demand through capital output [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Investment Strategy for 2026: The strategy focuses on two main lines: leveraging domestic advantages in global markets and reshaping the competitive ecosystem in the domestic logistics industry [2][3] - Drivers for Chinese Logistics Companies Going Global: The primary driver is the fundamental change in the global supply chain, moving away from a US-China trade-centric model to new growth points in Southeast Asia and Latin America, which are rich in population and resources [3][4] - Modes of Expansion: Chinese logistics companies are expanding through three main models: following mining companies, manufacturing, and e-commerce platforms, with the first and third models showing strong explosive potential [5][6] Market Developments - E-commerce Market in Southeast Asia and Latin America: Major platforms like Shopee, TikTok Shop, and Lazada dominate the Southeast Asian market, holding over 50% market share, while Chinese-backed platforms are rapidly entering Latin America [6] - J&T Express's Overseas Expansion: J&T Express has rapidly expanded its overseas business through a unique profit-sharing system, achieving over 32% market share in Southeast Asia and planning further expansion into the Middle East and Latin America [7] Impact of Mining Companies on Logistics - Following mining companies requires logistics firms to provide infrastructure in exchange for overseas resources, with significant Chinese investment in African ports and infrastructure [8] Changes in Domestic Express Delivery Industry - The domestic express delivery industry is shifting from price competition to a focus on quality, service, and stability due to the fading of internet traffic dividends and intensified competition among e-commerce platforms [9] E-commerce Tax Policy Changes - Starting in 2025, a new e-commerce tax compliance policy will require platforms to report operator information quarterly, increasing tax pressure on businesses with annual revenues over 5 million yuan [11] Effects of Anti-Competition Policies - The anti-competition policies implemented in 2025 have led to improvements in express delivery prices and profitability, shifting the focus back to service quality and operational efficiency [13] Future Investment Recommendations - Future investments in the logistics sector should focus on companies with advantageous industries going global, restructuring domestic order, and positioning for commodity price cycle reversals [14] Outlook for Bulk Commodity Supply Chain Companies - Bulk commodity supply chain companies are expected to see improved performance as they expand into overseas markets, with top companies achieving 30% of their revenue from international operations [15][16]