肉牛周期专家电话会

Summary of the Beef Cattle Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The domestic beef cattle industry in China is experiencing an approximately 8-year adjustment cycle, with price increases expected to begin in early 2025, primarily driven by supply factors [1][3] - Current shortages in calf supply are noted, while supplies of fattened cattle and beef are adequate. A shortage of large cattle is anticipated in the second half of 2026 [1][3] Key Data Points - The number of breeding cows in China is projected to be around 29.5 million by 2025, a decrease from the peak of approximately 30 million in 2023. This number is expected to continue declining by about 1 million in 2026 [1][4] - Low breeding cow inventory levels will lead to a reduction in the number of fattened cattle available for market, with expected decreases of approximately 20% and 7.8% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [1][5] - The current calf production rate is below 65%, down from around 70%, contributing to the supply shortage [5] Production Efficiency - The proportion of replacement heifers is currently below 15%, compared to a normal level of around 20%, which may impact future production capacity [6] - Medium-sized farms (500-999 head) exhibit the highest production efficiency, with a feed-to-meat ratio between 11.5 and 11.9 [8] - The latest comprehensive fattening cost is approximately 20-22 RMB per kilogram, with calf costs accounting for about 55% and feed costs for about 35% of total expenses [9] Profitability - Profit margins for specialized fattening operations are around 2,900 RMB per head, while self-breeding operations yield about 2,500 RMB [10] Market Dynamics - U.S. beef prices are expected to remain high due to declining production capacity, with the U.S. cattle inventory at its lowest in over 50 years [11] - Brazil has not reduced production and has seen record export levels, while Argentina has faced reductions due to drought and inflation [12] - The U.S.-China trade relationship significantly impacts U.S. beef exports to China, with a notable increase in imports from Australia [13][15] Price Expectations - Current prices for fattened bulls are approximately 27 RMB per kilogram, with expectations for prices to reach 31-32 RMB per kilogram by 2026, though this forecast carries uncertainty [22][23] - The price gap between Brazilian frozen beef and domestic fresh beef has widened, with Brazilian beef averaging 40.48 RMB per kilogram in Q3 [16] Policy Implications - The implementation of protective measures for imported beef, including quotas and tariffs, is expected to slightly reduce import volumes [2][18][19] - The impact of feed prices on profitability is minimal, with the breakeven point for fattening expected to be around 29-30 RMB per kilogram in 2026 [24] Industry Structure - As of the end of 2023, the scale of farming in China is approximately 37.2%, with expectations for increased concentration in the coming years as smallholders exit the market [20][25]