煤炭行业2026年度投资策略

Summary of Coal Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, specifically discussing the market outlook for 2025 and 2026, as well as long-term supply constraints due to resource depletion [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 2025 Market Performance - The coal industry experienced a downturn in 2025, with coal prices falling to their lowest levels in a decade. - The average price of thermal coal dropped from 850 RMB in 2024 to around 700 RMB, while coking coal prices fell from 2022 RMB to approximately 1500 RMB [2]. - The decline in prices is attributed to weak demand and increased supply, with residential electricity growth slowing and total electricity growth decreasing. The resurgence of production in Shanxi contributed to a 3% year-on-year increase in raw coal output [2]. 2026 Demand and Supply Forecast - Demand for coal is expected to improve in 2026, with a reduction in new wind and solar installations leading to an anticipated increase in thermal power generation [3][4]. - Total electricity consumption is projected to grow at a rate of 5%, equivalent to an increase of 500 billion kWh [4]. - Supply growth is expected to be limited, with a forecasted increase of only 0.6%, or 2.5 million tons, due to the potential exit of 80 million tons of illegal capacity [4]. Long-term Supply Constraints - Resource depletion is identified as a significant long-term supply constraint, with projections indicating that by 2040, the depletion rate could reach approximately 22% [5]. - Some groups may experience resource depletion rates of up to one-third of their total reserves within the next decade, highlighting severe resource over-extraction [5]. Impact of Energy Storage - Short-term impacts of energy storage on the competitiveness of thermal power are limited, but long-term projections suggest that if storage capacity reaches 30% with a 4-hour discharge time, it could correspond to an annualized power generation capacity of about 161 billion kWh [6]. - Economic viability of independent storage is constrained by diminishing price differentials as scale increases, alongside risks of subsidy reductions [6]. Investment Recommendations - Given the anticipated demand improvement and limited supply growth, the expected average price for thermal coal in 2026 is around 750 RMB, with coking coal priced between 1500-1600 RMB [3][7]. - Recommended stocks include Yancoal Energy, Power Development, and Shenhua, which are seen as having strong defensive and dividend characteristics [7][15]. Future Coal Power Demand - Coal power demand is expected to remain resilient over the next 5-10 years, despite rapid developments in wind and solar energy. The negative growth in thermal power in 2025 is attributed to short-term economic weakness rather than a long-term trend [8]. 2026 Consumption Predictions - A 1% increase in thermal coal consumption is anticipated for 2026, driven by increased coal usage in chemical processes and residential heating [9]. Global Supply Dynamics - Indonesia remains a primary source of coal imports for China, but future supply increases are limited due to rising export taxes and resource depletion issues. Other major suppliers like Australia and South Africa are also facing production plateauing [10][11]. Timing for Investment - The best time to invest in recommended companies is expected to be in the second quarter of the following year, particularly if spot prices fall below 700 RMB/ton, presenting a cost-effective opportunity [16]. Additional Important Insights - The focus on the steel industry and its demand for coking coal is crucial, as any slowdown in real estate investment could impact steel production negatively. Conversely, improvements in overseas economies could boost manufacturing and export, thereby increasing demand for steel and coking coal [13][14].