2025-12-29 15:51Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Biopharma in North America - Market Analysis: The latest weekly Total Prescription (TRx) year-over-year (YoY) growth for the week ending December 19, 2025, was +1.1%, compared to +1.0% the previous week and +0.8% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] Prescription Trends - Weekly TRx Change: For the week ended December 19, the US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +1.1%, up from +0.9% a year ago. The rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +1.2%, and the rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +0.8% [2] - Extended Unit (EUTRx) Growth: EUTRx weekly YoY growth was +1.4%, which is above the TRx YoY growth [2] - Sequential Growth: Sequential weekly TRx growth was +2.3%, a significant increase compared to -1.4% the week before [2] Company-Specific Insights Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Cobenfy Launch: Cobenfy was approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. The number of prescriptions (scripts) for the week was approximately 2,800, up from 2,710 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at approximately 2-3 times the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3] - Sales Estimates: The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has decreased from $196 million to $161 million, implying that around 104,000 TRx are required to meet these estimates [3] Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - Journavx Launch: Journavx was approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025. The number of scripts for the week was approximately 13,060, up from 12,570 the previous week. Hospital scripts accounted for about 39% of total scripts in Q3 [4] - Sales Projections: To achieve 2025 sales of $68 million, approximately 303,000 total scripts are needed, assuming a net price of $225 per script [4] Gilead Sciences (GILD) - Yeztugo Launch: Yeztugo was approved on June 18, 2025. The latest week total TRx was approximately 780, down from 800 the previous week. The analysis suggests that achieving FY25 sales of $150 million requires incremental weekly script growth from current levels [5][9] - Market Coverage: Yeztugo has secured 75% commercial coverage, including major payers, and most do not require copays, indicating alignment with USPSTF guidelines [9] Additional Insights - Market Focus: Investors are increasingly focused on 2026, with strong PrEP market growth of +14% YoY and sustained Descovy share of over 45% [9] - Pricing Analysis: The pricing analysis for immunology drugs such as Stelara and Tremfya has been updated, showing how additional indications impact price per script [10] - Biosimilar Adoption: Comprehensive analysis of biosimilar adoption across various branded drugs has been included, indicating trends in market share and sales [12] Conclusion - The biopharma industry in North America is showing positive growth trends in total prescriptions, with specific companies like BMY, VRTX, and GILD launching new products and adjusting sales expectations. The focus on 2026 and the strong market coverage for new drugs indicate potential investment opportunities in this sector.