2025-12-30 14:41Summary of China Solar Profitability Tracker - December 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the solar industry, particularly the profitability dynamics of companies involved in the solar value chain in China. Key Highlights 1. Price Hikes and Market Dynamics - A new round of price hikes was proposed in December, with average pricing across the solar value chain increasing by 7% month-to-date (MTD) as Tier 1 players responded to rising silver costs, which surged by 45% quarter-to-date (QTD) [3][4] - Poly players raised spot prices by 22% during the week of December 15, reaching Rmb65/kg for Rod Poly and Rmb62/kg for Granular Poly [3] 2. Inventory and Production Trends - The supply/demand ratio deteriorated to 129% in December from 110% in November, indicating an oversupply situation [9] - Producer-side inventory days increased to 55 days in December from 38 days in November, suggesting a buildup of unsold inventory [11] 3. Profitability Concerns - Despite a 12% increase in value chain pricing compared to Goldman Sachs estimates, concerns remain about potential cash burn due to extended inventory days and slow production cuts [4] - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Poly-Tier 1 was reported at 35%, with a slight decrease of 2 percentage points (ppt) [7] 4. Segment Performance - Cash profitability improved in Cell and Module segments but deteriorated in Glass, with Glass-Tier 1 GPM dropping to 1% [7] - The report indicates a preference for Film and High-efficiency Module segments, while expressing skepticism towards Glass and Wafer segments [4] 5. Future Outlook - The ongoing anti-involution campaign and new restrictions on below-cost pricing are expected to have a mild positive impact on pricing outlook for Poly, but downstream players may still need to reduce selling prices to maintain market share amid weak demand [4] - The report anticipates that normalized profitability will remain low unless Tier 1 capacity reductions occur [4] Additional Insights - The establishment of a joint venture platform for Poly capacity consolidation was reported, but progress is lagging behind initial targets [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting cost reduction technologies to ensure positive cash generation for sustainable operations [4] Conclusion - The solar industry in China is facing significant challenges with inventory buildup and profitability concerns, despite recent price increases. The dynamics of supply and demand, along with the need for cost management, will be critical for companies navigating this environment.