全球经济指标更新_2026 年金融环境有望支撑增长-Global_ GS Economic Indicators Update_ Financial Conditions Expected to Support Growth in 2026

Summary of Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic indicators and financial conditions, particularly their expected impact on growth in 2026. Key Points Financial Conditions Index (FCI) - The Financial Conditions Index indicates a +0.2 percentage point (pp) impulse to G10 growth in 2026 on a GDP-weighted basis [2][4][12] - The Global ex Russia FCI eased by 9.9 basis points (bp) on short rates [7][12] Growth Forecasts - No changes were made to the 2025 growth forecasts last week [7][12] - The report includes a detailed breakdown of GDP forecast changes across various regions, with notable increases in Turkey (+1.2pp) and Taiwan (+1.1pp) [8][12] Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The preliminary December CAI rose by +0.8pp in India and fell by -0.7pp in Japan [11][12] - The global CAI for December is reported at +2.5%, with developed markets at +1.3% and emerging markets at +3.9% [10][12] Wage and Price Inflation - The report includes wage trackers and inflation measures, indicating trends in wage growth across G10 economies [19][20][72] - The US wage tracker shows a composition-adjusted measure for 2020 and 2021 [18][20] Jobs-Workers Gap - The report highlights changes in the jobs-workers gap since December 2019, showing a significant gap in the US and UK [21][76] Fiscal Policy Impact - The effect of fiscal policy on real GDP growth is analyzed, with specific impacts noted for the US, Euro Area, and UK [80][85] - The US fiscal impulse captures both expansionary fiscal discretionary policy and the tax-like effects of tariffs [86][87] Short-Run Utilization Scores - The report provides short-run utilization scores for various countries, indicating the percentage of potential utilization in the labor market and industrial sector [88][93] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of financial conditions in shaping GDP growth outlooks and the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy [12][112] - It also discusses the methodology behind the indicators used, including the CAI and FCI, which are crucial for understanding economic trends [112][113] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Goldman Sachs Economic Indicators Update, focusing on financial conditions, growth forecasts, and economic indicators across various regions.