周期专场-2026年度策略会

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Metal Industry: The metal industry is experiencing enhanced allocation attributes due to global mining supply growth being lower than metal output growth, alongside low inventory levels of non-ferrous metals. Demand is supported by green energy infrastructure, computing power infrastructure, and fiscal stimulus, leading to an upward resonance of industrial and liquidity cycles, optimizing industry prosperity [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Performance: In 2025, there is a significant increase in capital market enthusiasm for cyclical industries, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by rising cyclical commodity prices and anti-involution logic. The metal industry is expected to strengthen its allocation attributes under a weak supply cycle [2]. - Gold Market: The global gold PEI index rose by 24% in the first ten months of 2025, indicating a scarcity of effective gold projects and limited new gold supply, with production costs rising, confirming the obstructed supply situation [3][8]. - Geopolitical Risks: The global financial market faces geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties, leading to high volatility. This environment increases the premium on safe-haven assets like gold, with a 91% probability of positive returns during high volatility periods [4]. - Mining Exploration Investment: Global mining exploration investment is declining, with a projected 3% decrease in 2025. The share of greenfield exploration projects is at a historical low, reflecting reduced capital risk appetite [5]. - Investment in Battery Metals: Investment in battery metals surged by 42% from 2023 to 2024 but is expected to decline in 2025 due to changing price expectations. Traditional precious metals like gold and copper are regaining attention [6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - China's Non-Ferrous Metal Production: China's non-ferrous metal production growth has slowed to 2.6% by October 2025, leading to continued low copper smelting fees and exacerbating supply tightness due to reduced upstream capital expenditures [7]. - Global Copper Industry: The global copper mining industry faces challenges, with a 2% investment growth in 2024, but a 9% decline in greenfield projects. The discovery of new copper mines has significantly decreased since 2010 [10]. - Cost Trends: The average cash production cost for copper is projected to rise by 24% from 2021-2024 levels by 2030-2035, indicating structural and cyclical cost increases [11][12]. Inventory and Market Conditions - Global Inventory Levels: As of November 2025, global non-ferrous metal inventories are at a 35-year low, with a 13% year-on-year decline. This reflects supply chain vulnerabilities and limited smelting capacity utilization [13]. - China's Demand Recovery: In 2025, China's market demand shows signs of recovery, driven by government subsidies and the expansion of the new energy industry chain [14]. Future Outlook - Liquidity Policies: The shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy globally is expected to boost commodity price elasticity and enhance industry prosperity and valuation levels [15][16]. - Investment Recommendations: Focus on sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading companies with capital expenditures and R&D driving long-term growth, and new material fields benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [36]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the metal industry and related sectors, highlighting the interplay of supply, demand, and macroeconomic factors influencing investment strategies.