Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the foreign exchange market, particularly the performance of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies during the year-end period of 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - The US Dollar Index stabilized around 98, with market liquidity significantly weakened during the Christmas week. Despite the US Q3 GDP data exceeding expectations, concerns about the labor market persist, supporting high expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Non-USD currencies experienced gains, with the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Norwegian Krone, and Canadian Dollar appreciating by 1.57%, 1.37%, 1.34%, and 0.95% respectively. The British Pound rose by 0.88%, while the Euro saw a modest increase of 0.5% [1][2]. - The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.75% following a dovish rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December [1]. - The offshore Yuan broke the 7.0 mark, indicating a strong appreciation trend, influenced by a weak USD and increased year-end settlement demand [4][5]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report highlights that the appreciation of the Yuan is supported by seasonal factors, but the pace of appreciation is limited by the central bank's policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate [5][6]. - The central bank's recent adjustments to the midpoint exchange rate and the highest recorded scale of counter-cyclical factor adjustments (301 pips) indicate a strong effort to manage the Yuan's appreciation rate [5]. - The report anticipates that after a short-term strong performance, the Yuan's appreciation rate may flatten out, with a potential stabilization around the 7.0 level in early 2026 [6]. - Upcoming economic data releases from both the US and China, including the FOMC minutes and China's PMI, are expected to influence market sentiment and the Yuan's trajectory [6]. Market Predictions - The forecast for the CNY/USD exchange rate for the upcoming week is set between 7.00 and 7.03, indicating continued appreciation [3]. - The Euro/USD exchange rate is predicted to range between 1.1750 and 1.1840, with potential for volatility based on economic performance and central bank policies [7][8]. Conclusion - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable as liquidity remains low during the holiday season. The focus will be on the Yuan's performance and the effectiveness of the central bank's stabilization policies as the year concludes [2][6].
全球外汇周报：市场料在年末维持平稳