外汇即时点评：如何看待年末人民币汇率的加速升值

Summary of Conference Call on RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent trends in the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates, highlighting the appreciation of the RMB against the USD, particularly as it surpassed the 7.0 mark in late December 2025. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated significantly since late November 2025, reaching a new high for the year by surpassing 7.0 on December 25, 2025. The onshore RMB is also close to this threshold, marking its highest level since May 2023. [1] - The appreciation is attributed to the depreciation of the USD and seasonal factors, although the monetary authorities have moderated the pace of appreciation. [1] USD Depreciation - The USD index has weakened continuously since late November 2025, with a decline of over 2% by December 25, 2025. This is primarily driven by market expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. [2] Labor Market and Inflation Data - The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November 2025, and average hourly wages declining to a low of 3.5% year-on-year. [3] - The US CPI for November 2025 was reported at 2.7%, significantly below market expectations, which supports the case for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. [3] Correlation Between USD and RMB - Analysis indicates a historical correlation between the USD index and RMB exchange rate movements, with a ratio of approximately 3:1, meaning a 3% depreciation in the USD corresponds to a 1% appreciation in the RMB. [4] Seasonal Factors - Historically, the RMB tends to appreciate during the end of the year due to increased demand for currency conversion by exporters and a general weakening of the USD. [5] - The net settlement of foreign exchange transactions typically peaks in December, contributing to the RMB's appreciation. [5] Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Management - The central bank's intervention has been noted, with the midpoint exchange rate appreciating at a slower pace compared to the spot rate, indicating a desire to smooth out short-term volatility. [7] - The "counter-cyclical factor" in the pricing model has turned positive, suggesting a controlled approach to managing the exchange rate. [7] Future Outlook for RMB - The RMB is expected to maintain a moderate appreciation trend, with a monthly appreciation of around 1% in December 2025, translating to an annualized rate exceeding 10%. However, this pace is deemed unsustainable in the long term. [8] - Factors supporting the RMB's strength include a weak USD, low inflation, strong exports, and a high trade surplus, with the trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in November 2025. [9] - The report anticipates that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately, driven by both external and internal factors, despite potential fluctuations in the exchange rate. [9] Conditions for Sustainable Appreciation - The report outlines several dimensions for assessing appropriate appreciation rates, including expected USD depreciation of around 5% in the coming year, which could lead to a 1.7% appreciation of the RMB. [10] - The analysis also considers the impact of interest rate differentials and inflation differences between China and the US on the RMB's exchange rate stability. [10] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of balancing the exchange rate to support cross-border capital flows and the internationalization of the RMB. [9] - The potential for a more accommodative monetary policy in the US, coupled with weak employment data, may continue to exert downward pressure on the USD, thereby supporting the RMB's appreciation. [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the RMB exchange rate dynamics and the influencing factors as discussed in the conference call.