中国汽车 - 2026 年以旧换新补贴延期：需求检验时刻来临-China Autos & Shared Mobility-Trade-in Subsidies Extension in 2026 – Time to Put Demand to the Test

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Autos & Shared Mobility - Date: December 30, 2025 - Source: Morgan Stanley Research Core Insights - Subsidy Extension: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced the extension of cash-for-clunker subsidies for 2026, maintaining Rmb20,000 for New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) and Rmb15,000 for Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) [3][4] - Local Government Support: Local governments will provide additional trade-in subsidies of up to Rmb15,000 for NEVs and Rmb13,000 for ICEVs, aligning with previous expectations [3] - Subsidy Structure: The new subsidy structure includes a cap on national subsidies at 12% for NEVs and 10% for ICEVs, with local subsidies capped at 8% for NEVs and 6% for ICEVs, indicating a reduction for vehicles priced under Rmb150,000 compared to 2025 [4] Beneficiaries of the Subsidy - Targeted Models: Vehicles priced between Rmb150,000 and Rmb200,000 are expected to benefit the most from the subsidies, while premium models from companies like Li Auto, NIO, and Huawei partners may remain unaffected [5] - Mass-Market Brands: Brands targeting the mass market may face challenges due to subsidy reductions and a 5% increase in NEV purchase tax [5] - Supplier Opportunities: Companies such as Xingyu, Desay, and Foryou are positioned to benefit from their domestic market exposure, while luxury dealers like Zhongsheng are also expected to gain from the subsidy extension [6] Market Outlook - Sales Expectations: The timely renewal of policies and the later Chinese New Year in 2026 are anticipated to positively impact January sales, although the sustainability of demand post-CNY will be closely monitored [12] - Volatility in Auto Stocks: Despite favorable policy developments, auto stocks are expected to remain volatile, and investors may consider selling after recent rallies due to underlying demand uncertainties [12] - Wholesale Forecast: The forecast for passenger vehicle wholesale is projected to decline by 3% year-over-year for the upcoming year [12] Additional Insights - Subsidy Comparison: A detailed comparison of the subsidy scheme for 2025 and 2026 indicates that while the upper limits remain unchanged, the price coefficients have been adjusted, potentially affecting the overall subsidy amounts for lower-priced vehicles [13][14] - Investment Recommendations: Analysts have provided ratings for various companies within the industry, indicating a mix of overweight, equal-weight, and underweight positions based on their market outlook and performance expectations [68][70] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese automotive industry, focusing on subsidy impacts, market dynamics, and investment opportunities.