美联储会议纪要：“多数” 与会者认为 “长期内” 将进一步降息，“部分” 认为政策 “一段时间内” 维持不变_ FOMC Minutes Note “Most” Participants See Further Rate Cuts “Over Time,” While “Some” See Policy “Unchanged for Some Time”

Summary of FOMC Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations. Core Points and Arguments 1. Interest Rate Decisions: - Most participants supported lowering the fed funds rate in December due to increased downside risks to the labor market and lower or unchanged upside risks to inflation. A few participants had a finely balanced view on this decision, while some preferred to keep the rate unchanged due to concerns about stalled inflation progress [2][3][4] 2. Inflation and Employment Risks: - Participants generally believed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated, while downside risks to employment had increased since mid-2025. Most participants thought further rate cuts would be appropriate over time if inflation slowed as expected [3][4] 3. Labor Market Outlook: - The labor market was expected to stabilize under appropriate monetary policy, but the outlook remained uncertain. Most participants saw risks to employment skewed to the downside, with rising unemployment among vulnerable groups and potential for higher layoffs [4] 4. Inflation Projections: - Participants expected inflation to remain somewhat elevated in the near term before gradually declining to the Fed's 2% target. Many anticipated that tariff pressures on core goods inflation would subside, and a majority expected disinflation in housing services [8] 5. GDP Growth Forecasts: - The Fed staff projected moderately faster GDP growth through 2028 compared to previous forecasts, reflecting easier financial conditions and stronger potential output growth. The inflation forecast was slightly lower for 2025 and 2026, but risks to growth and labor market forecasts were skewed to the downside [8] 6. Reserve Management Purchases: - The FOMC decided to start reserve management purchases (RMPs) at the December meeting, with participants generally supporting flexibility in adjusting the size and timing of RMPs to accommodate demand for Fed liabilities. RMPs were emphasized as a tool for interest rate control and market functioning [9] Other Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [6][10][11][12][20]