美国经济_ 2026 年资本支出展望_ 利好因素汇总-US Economics Analyst_ 2026 Capex Outlook_ Adding Up the Tailwinds

Summary of the 2026 Capex Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. business fixed investment landscape, particularly capital expenditures (capex) for 2026, influenced by various economic factors and legislative changes [2][9][12]. Key Points and Arguments Current Capex Growth - Real business fixed investment grew at a 6.5% annualized rate in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by a surge in equipment imports [2][5]. - Domestically-produced capex increased at a 2.2% annualized pace, aligning with overall GDP growth but below typical expansion rates [2][8]. Legislative Impact: One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) - The OBBBA is expected to incentivize business investment by lowering the cost of capital, with an estimated boost of about 3 percentage points (pp) to capex growth in 2026 [2][12][33]. - Key provisions include full expensing of manufacturing structures and restoration of full expensing for equipment and R&D investments [12][14]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions have eased since early 2025, contributing an estimated 0.8pp boost to capex growth in 2026 [36][39]. - Bank lending standards for business loans have relaxed, with healthy loan demand reported [36][38]. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investment - Strong demand for AI investment is projected to contribute approximately 2pp to actual capex growth in 2026, although much of this will be offset by imports, resulting in a net GDP growth boost of about 0.1-0.2pp [41][48]. - The impact of AI on measured capex growth is expected to be understated due to the treatment of semiconductor purchases and tech-related intellectual property in national accounts [41][42]. Tariff Effects - Higher tariffs negatively impacted capex in 2025 by increasing capital goods costs and uncertainty, with a projected drag fading from 1.5pp in 2025H2 to about 0.5pp in 2026 [53][57]. Forecasts and Risks - The forecast for real capex growth in 2026 is set at 5.5%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 3% [3][65]. - Risks include potential tighter financial conditions or weaker aggregate demand, which could negatively affect capex [3][68]. Sector-Specific Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit the most from the OBBBA provisions, while the utilities sector may face increased costs due to the phaseout of clean energy credits [18][20]. - Investment in computer and electronics manufacturing remains high relative to output, which may limit growth upside in 2026 [22][23]. Additional Important Insights - The volatility in software prices has affected capex growth estimates, with significant fluctuations observed in the software deflator impacting real capex growth [7][8]. - The Dodge momentum index indicates a recent uptick in investment momentum, suggesting a positive outlook for nonresidential building projects [61][65]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the U.S. capex outlook for 2026, highlighting the interplay of legislative changes, financial conditions, and sector-specific dynamics.