中国消费家电_2026 年家电以旧换新补贴及我们的观点-China Consumer Appliances Sector 2026 home appliances trade-in subsidies and our thoughts

Summary of the Conference Call on China Consumer Appliances Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Consumer Appliances Sector, particularly the 2026 home appliances trade-in subsidies announced by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance on December 30, 2025 [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Announcement Timing: The release of the 2026 subsidy policies was slightly ahead of expectations, as the 2025 version was released on January 8, 2025. The overall content aligns with market expectations, benefiting white goods and smart home products [2][3]. 2. Narrowed Subsidy Scope: The 2026 subsidies will cover only 6 categories: fridge, washing machine, TV, air conditioner, PC, and water heater. This is a reduction from the 12 categories in 2025, which included major kitchen appliances and small appliances like range hoods and microwaves. This change may negatively impact companies focused on major and small appliances [3][4]. 3. Subsidy Structure Changes: - The subsidy for energy-efficient products will be 15% of the sales price, with a cap of Rmb1,500 per category per consumer. This is a decrease from the previous 20% for Level 1 energy-efficient products and 15% for Level 2, with a cap of Rmb2,000 [4]. 4. Encouragement for Local Governments: The policy explicitly encourages local governments to subsidize smart home products, including age-adaptive home products. Local governments will have the discretion to set specific categories and standards [5]. 5. Estimated Total Subsidy Amount: The total amount for the 2026 subsidies has not been officially released, but estimates suggest it could be around Rmb250 billion, slightly lower than the Rmb300 billion in 2025. This estimate is based on a recent fund of Rmb62.5 billion issued to support consumer goods trade-in [5]. Sector Implications - The focus on white goods is expected to benefit industry leaders such as Midea and Haier. The support for smart home products may also favor companies like Roborock and Ecovacs. However, sales for major appliances (e.g., Robam) and small appliances (e.g., Supor, Joyoung) may face challenges due to a high sales base [6]. Risks Identified 1. Home Appliances Sector Risks: - Impact of the China property market on demand - Elevated raw material prices - Global supply chain constraints affecting exports [9]. 2. Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Sector Risks: - Intensifying market competition - Raw material price increases - Foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations [10]. 3. Small Appliances Sector Risks: - Economic downturn leading to weak consumption - Price competition - Rising raw material costs eroding profitability [10]. Additional Information - The report was prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited, with analysts including Rennie Pan, Christine Peng, and Molly Huang [7]. - The document includes disclaimers regarding the potential conflicts of interest and the nature of the research provided [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications from the conference call regarding the China Consumer Appliances Sector and the upcoming subsidy policies for 2026.