中国房地产：12 月销售超预期（奢侈品住宅增值税政策 + 地方因价格走弱放宽调控）China Property Dec Sales Beat on Luxury Home VAT Local Easing on Weaker Prices

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically analyzing the sales performance of listed property companies in December 2025 and the impact of recent policy changes on the market. Key Points and Arguments December Sales Performance - December sales for 37 listed property companies showed a 22% year-over-year (YoY) decline but a 40% month-over-month (MoM) increase, exceeding low expectations due to strong luxury home sales [1] - Notable sales included: - CRL: Rmb 41 billion (+28% YoY) - COLI: Rmb 40 billion (-1% YoY) - CMSK: Rmb 26 billion [1] - High-end projects in cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing drove sales for CRL and COLI, while Sunac saw a 70% increase due to a low base and new launches in Wuhan [1] - 81% of listed companies experienced a YoY sales drop, indicating a challenging market environment [1] Sales Forecasts - For 2025, a 21% YoY decline in sales is expected for listed companies, with only Jinmao projected to grow by 16% [3] - The average sales forecast for 2026 is a 12% YoY decline, with luxury homes and resources being key factors influencing this outlook [3] Secondary Market Trends - Secondary sales dropped 30% YoY and remained flat MoM in December, hindered by price cuts and a high number of listings (4.64 million units) [1] - The average weekly transaction volume in December was 24.3k units, comparable to June 2025, but showed a 1.8% YoY decline [1] Policy Impacts - The Ministry of Finance reduced the VAT on homes sold within two years from 5% to 3%, maintaining a 0% VAT for homes resold after two years [2] - Local policies in cities like Beijing and Shanghai have eased purchase restrictions and provided subsidies to stimulate demand [2] - The overall impact of these policies is viewed as positive but potentially marginal in terms of immediate market recovery [2] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The property sector's share prices corrected in December due to weak sales and disappointing policy easing expectations [4] - Analysts anticipate a round of earnings downgrades in January 2026, particularly for well-known companies, as household confidence remains low [4] - Despite the challenges, luxury mall retail sales showed positive same-store sales growth in Q4, indicating some resilience in the luxury segment [4] - Top investment picks include Jinmao, C&D, and CRL [4] Additional Important Insights - The conference highlighted the ongoing challenges in the property market, including the need for effective policy measures to stabilize the sector and improve consumer confidence [4] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal and targeted local policies is seen as essential for long-term recovery [2][4] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the impact of sales performance and policy changes on industry dynamics.