SIASUN(SZ:300024)2026-01-04 11:35Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Tesla Inc - Industry: Autos & Shared Mobility - Market Cap: $1,585,713 million as of December 31, 2025 - Stock Rating: Equal-weight - Price Target: $425.00 Key Financial Metrics - 4Q25 Deliveries: 418,000 vehicles, a decrease of 16% year-over-year, slightly missing sell-side consensus of 422,900 vehicles by 1% but beating Morgan Stanley estimates of 402,000 vehicles [1][8] - Energy Storage System (ESS) Deployments: 14.2 GWh, exceeding expectations of 13.4 GWh [1][8] - 2026 Estimates: - Vehicle unit sales: 1.597 million, a decrease of 2.5% year-over-year - ESS deployment: 64 GWh, an increase of 37% [1] Core Business Insights - Robotaxi Business: The primary catalyst for Tesla's growth in 1H26, with advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology being crucial for future vehicle demand [1] - Volume Growth Expectations: Anticipated double-digit growth in vehicle volume starting from 2027 [1] Price Target Methodology - Bear Case: $145 per share, with components including: - $30/share for automotive (6 million units by 2040 at a 6.5% EBIT margin) - $50/share for Network Services (60% attach rate at $200/month ARPU) - $45/share for Tesla Mobility (2 million car fleet at ~40% EBITDA margin) - $20/share for Energy [3][25] - Base Case: $425 per share, with components including: - $55/share for core automotive (9 million units by 2040 at a 10.5% EBIT margin) - $145/share for Network Services (80% attach rate at $240/month ARPU) - $125/share for Tesla Mobility (5 million cars at ~$1.33/mile) - $40/share for Energy [19] - Bull Case: $860 per share, with optimistic projections for all segments [3][19] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - 2025 Revenue: $93,941 million - 2026 Revenue: $97,275 million - 2027 Revenue: $118,124 million - Auto Gross Margin: Expected to be 16.3% in 2026 [27] Risks and Challenges - Market Competition: Increased competition from traditional OEMs, startups, and large tech firms in both automotive and robotics sectors [31][32] - Execution Risks: Associated with robotaxi, FSD, and humanoid projects [32] - Regulatory Risks: Potential regulatory challenges, particularly in China [32] Additional Insights - Consensus Rating Distribution: 42% Overweight, 38% Equal-weight, 21% Underweight [23] - Global Revenue Exposure: 20-30% from Europe and Mainland China, with minimal exposure to Latin America and MEA [28] This summary encapsulates the key points from the Tesla Inc. conference call, highlighting the company's performance, future expectations, and the associated risks in the current market landscape.