中国经济-2025 年收官：PMI 意外走强-China_Economics_2025_Ends_with_PMI_Surprise-

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy and its performance indicators, particularly focusing on the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in December 2025. Core Insights and Arguments - PMI Performance: - The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, an increase of 0.9 percentage points (pp) from November, surpassing market expectations (Citi/market: 49.3/49.2) [4][8] - This marks the first expansion after eight consecutive months of contraction [4] - The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to expansion, climbing 0.7pp to 50.2, exceeding the consensus of 49.6 [5] - GDP Forecast: - The improving PMI data supports a 5% GDP growth target for 2025, which has been maintained since June [6] - Incremental fiscal funds of approximately RMB1 trillion are anticipated as a likely ceiling for the year [6] - Policy Support: - Policymakers have pledged measured support for 2026, with a focus on the pace of policy deployment leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC) [6] - Recent government actions include renewing the trade-in program for durable goods and introducing new tax incentives for home purchases [6] - Sector Performance: - Manufacturing Output: The production index increased by 1.7pp to 51.7, driven partly by a low base from November [7] - Demand Indicators: New orders rose 1.6pp to 50.8, marking a return to expansion for the first time in six months [7] - Export Orders: New export orders gained 1.4pp to 49.0, the highest in nine months, indicating potential positive year-over-year export growth in December [7] - Construction Sector: Construction PMI jumped 3.2pp to 52.8, reflecting unseasonably warm temperatures and earlier policy measures [7] - Price Indices: - The purchasing price index eased by 0.5pp to 53.1, while the producer price index firmed 0.7pp to 48.9, which may alleviate some pressure on industrial profitability [7] - Inventory Levels: - Finished goods inventories increased 0.9pp to 48.2, indicating improving activity but still below the neutral mark of 50 [7] - Services Sector: - The services PMI edged up to 49.7, remaining in contraction for a second consecutive month, reflecting ongoing weakness in domestic consumption [7] Additional Important Insights - The uneven recovery is highlighted by the performance disparity between large/medium-sized enterprises and small firms, with the latter showing signs of weakness [4] - The January-February period is identified as a critical window for potential rate or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts [6] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy as reflected in the PMI data and government policy responses.