中政策制定者公布 2026 年 “双升级” 计划实施细则-China_ Policymakers unveil implementation details for 2026 _dual upgrade_ program

Summary of the Conference Call on China's "Dual Upgrade" Program Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the consumer goods industry in China, specifically focusing on the 2026 consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program, referred to as the "dual upgrade" program [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Program Announcement: On December 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) released guidelines for the 2026 "dual upgrade" program, adjusting subsidy categories and levels to support areas like livelihood, security, elderly care, green products, and AI [1][2]. 2. Funding Details: The initial funding for the program is set at RMB 62.5 billion, which is lower than the RMB 81 billion allocated in 2025. The total expected funding for 2026 is around RMB 250 billion, slightly below the RMB 300 billion from 2025 [1][2][6]. 3. Impact on Retail Sales: Although retail sales growth is expected to pick up in early 2026 due to the new subsidy quota, full-year nominal retail sales growth is projected to decelerate from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026 due to reduced subsidies and their diminishing impact [1][7]. 4. Subsidy Adjustments: The subsidy structure has been modified, with a shift from fixed subsidies per vehicle to a percentage-based subsidy tied to the vehicle's price. For home appliances, subsidies will now only apply to products meeting Level 1 energy-efficiency standards, with a subsidy rate of 15% (down from 20%) and a maximum subsidy of RMB 1,500 per item (down from RMB 2,000) [9][2]. 5. Eligible Products: The program will focus on products with broad reach, narrowing the scope of qualified home appliances from 12 to 6 sub-categories and expanding coverage to include digital products like smart glasses and smart home devices for elderly consumers [9][2]. 6. Implementation Challenges: The effectiveness of the trade-in program is contingent on both funding and implementation. The previous program's impact faded due to slower subsidy disbursement and tighter application processes, particularly affecting home appliance trade-in applications [2][10]. Additional Important Content - Long-term Recovery Measures: To achieve a sustainable recovery in consumption, it is suggested that measures should prioritize job creation and income improvement, such as subsidizing labor-intensive services and enhancing income distribution through mechanisms like raising the minimum wage [7][2]. - Historical Context: The initial boost from the trade-in program was noted in Q4 2024 and H1 2025, but its effects have diminished over time, indicating a need for ongoing adjustments to maintain consumer engagement [2][10]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call regarding the "dual upgrade" program and its implications for the consumer goods industry in China.