2026-01-04 15:35Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the home appliance industry, focusing on sales performance and trends in 2025 and projections for 2026 [2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance in December 2025 - December 2025 recorded the lowest absolute sales for the year, with total payments for home appliances at 52.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3% [2]. - Specific category sales included: - Air conditioners: 13.2 billion yuan, down 9.7% - Washing machines: 8.5 billion yuan, down 5.1% - Refrigerators: 11.3 billion yuan, down 10.9% - Black electronics (e.g., TVs): 12.6 billion yuan, down 7.2% [3][2]. Market Trends and Projections - The overall home appliance market is expected to decline by 9% in Q4 2025, though the decline is not as severe as initially feared [4]. - For Q1 2026, a modest growth target of 4% is set, with expectations of maintaining low single-digit growth [8][2]. National Subsidy Policy Changes for 2026 - Starting January 1, 2026, the national subsidy policy will expand to over 20 provinces, covering six major categories of home appliances [5]. - Although the first quarter will have sufficient funding, the total annual budget is expected to be lower than in 2025 [5]. - Priority will be given to energy-efficient products, with local governments and platform merchants expected to increase subsidies [5][6]. E-commerce and Consumer Engagement - JD.com aims to break regional barriers and expand its reach into first-tier and rural markets, expecting to add 30-40 million new users to the subsidy program [7]. - Over 100 million users benefited from JD.com's promotional policies in the first half of 2025 [7]. Recent Sales Trends - Recent sales data shows a slight recovery, with home appliance sales reaching nearly 10 billion yuan in three days, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [8]. - However, air conditioners and refrigerators are still experiencing negative growth [8]. Price Trends and Material Changes - The average price of air conditioners rose to 2,900 yuan in December, a month-on-month increase of nearly 12% [10]. - The shift from copper to aluminum in air conditioning units is being driven by rising raw material costs, with significant cost savings projected [13][15][21]. - The air conditioning industry is expected to see price increases due to ongoing material cost pressures, with Midea announcing a 3-4% price hike [21]. Aluminum-Copper Transition in Air Conditioning - Major manufacturers are transitioning to aluminum in air conditioning units, with North American markets leading the way [13][20]. - The use of aluminum is expected to save costs significantly, with potential for replacing 100,000 tons of copper annually in the industry [15][17]. - Concerns about product reliability have been addressed through improved testing standards, ensuring that aluminum does not compromise product lifespan [14]. Competitive Landscape - Major brands like Midea, Gree, and Haier are facing challenges with declining sales across various categories, with specific negative growth rates reported for each brand [9]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as companies adapt to new materials and market demands, with Gree's stance on aluminum usage being particularly noteworthy [20]. Additional Important Insights - The home appliance market is experiencing a significant transformation driven by material cost changes and evolving consumer preferences, with a focus on energy efficiency and sustainability [5][21]. - The impact of local government subsidies and e-commerce strategies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in 2026 [7][5].