2026年债市展望-度尽劫波-守候周期

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the debt market in 2026, indicating a continuation of the deleveraging phase with high corporate leverage and government leveraging while household debt pressure eases [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Debt Cycle Outlook: The debt cycle in 2026 is expected to remain in a deleveraging and debt crisis clearing phase, with corporate leverage remaining high and government leverage increasing [3]. - Debt Pressure Changes: Household debt costs, particularly mortgage-related, are expected to decrease, while corporate leverage remains high. Government debt financing costs are manageable due to previous interest rate declines [4]. - Inflation Trends: Inflation is anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase, with food prices, particularly from the pig cycle, expected to rise in 2026. However, overall price improvements are not expected to be significant [5]. - Policy Recommendations: A dual easing policy of fiscal and monetary measures is recommended, with a projected broad deficit rate of around 10% in 2026. Monetary policy should include slight interest rate cuts to maintain low nominal rates [6]. - Nominal GDP Growth: Nominal GDP growth is expected to approach zero, relying more on actual output improvements rather than price increases. This necessitates stabilizing total demand through fiscal and monetary easing [7][8]. - Liquidity and Monetary Policy: The liquidity situation in 2025 was positive, with expectations of continued easing in 2026. The focus of monetary policy is shifting towards short-term interest rates and liquidity management [9]. - Credit Growth Expectations: Credit growth, particularly in the household sector, is expected to continue declining, with new credit primarily driven by policy-induced investment demand [11][12]. - Deposit Trends: The deposit situation is expected to stabilize in 2026, with no significant pressure on liabilities, although growth rates will not match previous highs [13]. Additional Important Insights - Institutional Behavior: State-owned banks are expected to continue profit realization, with a shift towards bond investment strategies. Insurance companies are focusing on long-duration bonds, while bank wealth management products are growing [14]. - Interest Rate Strategy: A recommendation for a term strategy under a steep yield curve is made, with low probabilities of significant long-end yield increases [15][16]. - Credit Strategy Focus: Attention should be given to changes in risk premiums in urban investment bonds and the supply changes brought by the rise of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. There are opportunities in medium-term urban investment bonds and infrastructure sectors [17]. - Macro Environment Conclusion: The overall macro environment is characterized by dual easing policies, leading to a likely continuation of a steep yield curve, suggesting that term strategies will remain relevant [18].