如何看待两个预期-稳定楼市与财政前置

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview: Real Estate Market Key Points on Market Conditions - The real estate market in high-energy cities is facing inventory pressure and risks for real estate companies, with key indicators such as development investment, new construction, second-hand housing prices, and commercial housing sales showing signs of weakness in Q2 2024 [1] - Development investment and new construction area are expected to decline significantly year-on-year in Q3 and Q4 2024, leading to a dilemma of either price reduction for volume or a market with prices but no transactions [1] - Government measures such as tax reductions, special loans for project completion, and the continuation of financial policies have not effectively addressed the high inventory issue, with some developed eastern regions experiencing a commercial property clearance cycle exceeding four years [1][4] Policy Expectations - It is anticipated that no large-scale stimulus policies will be introduced due to persistently high inventory levels, and existing regulatory measures need optimization to prevent bankruptcy risks for individual companies [5][6] - The government is likely to adopt a gradual approach to resolving issues rather than implementing one-time large-scale stimulus measures [6] Future Market Performance - The overall performance of the real estate market in 2025 is expected to be complex, with high-energy cities stabilizing first, while lower-energy cities still face significant challenges due to high inventory and risks for real estate companies [2] - Key indicators such as development investment and new construction are showing signs of deterioration, with a notable decline expected in Q3 and Q4 2024 [2] Financial Aspects: Local Government Debt and Fiscal Policy Local Government Debt Issuance - In 2025, local governments are expected to issue over 10 trillion yuan in local bonds, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5%, but the actual portion contributing to physical work volume is expected to decline by 10% [8] - The issuance of new local bonds for project construction in Q1 2026 is projected to be around 1 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year [9] Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The proportion of special bonds used for repaying hidden debts and overdue payments is expected to remain high in the coming years, with long-term bonds becoming a trend to alleviate short-term repayment pressures [10][11] - Local governments are likely to issue long-term special bonds (over 30 years) to mitigate the pressure of concentrated repayments [11] Investment Demand and Government Measures - Local governments are actively promoting major project construction and utilizing policy-based financial tools to support these projects, ensuring that new loans are smoothly implemented [12] - The focus on major projects and the use of financial tools are aimed at stabilizing economic development and achieving investment growth [12] Additional Insights - The government is aware of the lagging nature of regulatory measures and the need for proactive management of expectations to boost social confidence [5][6] - The market is not expected to see a fundamental improvement within a year due to the long inventory cycle, necessitating several years for natural clearance [7] - The real estate market's stability is unlikely to be achieved in the short term, with a focus on increasing support for urban village renovations and housing construction to stabilize investment [7]