美国经济-2026 年通胀展望：向目标迈进-US Economics Analyst_ 2026 Inflation Outlook_ Traveling Toward Target

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic outlook, specifically inflation trends and forecasts for 2026, as analyzed by Goldman Sachs. Core Insights and Arguments - Current Inflation Status: Core PCE inflation is at 2.8% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's target, primarily due to unexpected tariff impacts rather than strong underlying cost pressures [2][5][6]. - Future Inflation Expectations: - Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease to 2.1% year-over-year by December 2026, with a Q4/Q4 forecast of 2.2%, which is 30 basis points below Bloomberg consensus and FOMC forecasts [2][26]. - CPI inflation is projected to be slightly lower than PCE inflation, with a forecast of 2.1% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, which is 60 basis points below the Bloomberg consensus [2][22]. - Factors Influencing Disinflation: - Tariff Impact: The contribution of tariffs to inflation is expected to decrease from 0.5 percentage points currently to 0.2 percentage points by December 2026, after peaking at 0.8 percentage points in mid-2026 [6][7]. - Shelter Inflation: Anticipated to fall from 3.7% year-over-year to 2.3% by December 2026, below pre-pandemic levels, due to slower rent growth and increased supply [10][11]. - Wage Growth: Wage growth has slowed to target-consistent levels, which will exert downward pressure on nonhousing services inflation [11][14]. Additional Important Insights - Data Quality Concerns: There are ongoing issues with data collection, with a 20% decline in the number of prices collected for the CPI in 2025, leading to increased variability in inflation data [3][45][50]. - Monthly Inflation Forecasts: - For December 2025, core PCE inflation is forecasted at 0.25% and core CPI at 0.28%, reflecting distortions from delayed data collection [33][37]. - For January 2026, core PCE inflation is expected to be 0.27% and core CPI at 0.26%, influenced by typical start-of-year price increases [37][38]. - Risks to Inflation Forecasts: The risks appear balanced, with potential for both upward and downward surprises due to tariff changes and consumer cost burdens [31][32]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for inflation in 2026, with expectations of a return to target levels driven by various economic factors, despite challenges in data collection and potential tariff impacts.