中国 2026 年展望 -探索新增长引擎-China 2026 Outlook_ Exploring New Growth Engines

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy and its outlook for 2026, highlighting significant changes in trade and the property market, as well as the challenges of finding new growth engines in the economy [3][6][11]. Core Economic Insights - Export Growth: - China's export volume is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, following an 8% growth in 2025. This growth is supported by strong goods exports and policies promoting services exports [3][4]. - The current account surplus is projected to widen from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, exceeding consensus expectations [3][4][12]. - Property Market: - The property market is anticipated to continue its decline in 2026, but its negative impact on GDP is expected to lessen as the sector's share of the economy has significantly decreased [3][4][35]. - New housing starts and property investment have dropped 50-80% from their peaks in 2020-21, indicating a prolonged downturn [35][37]. - Labor Market: - The labor market remains weak, with structural challenges such as job displacement due to AI and cyclical issues from the property downturn [3][4][42]. - The unemployment rate has not changed significantly, but hiring has been depressed, leading to a slowdown in urban nominal wage growth to 3.8% in Q3 [42][44]. - Consumption Trends: - Household consumption growth is expected to moderate to 4.5% in 2026, down from 4.8% in 2025, due to a weak labor market and declining house prices [53][54]. - Government consumption is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, offsetting weaknesses in private consumption [54][55]. Investment Outlook - Investment Growth: - Gross fixed capital formation growth is expected to rebound from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing investment [3][4][64]. - Infrastructure and services-related investments are likely to see significant growth, while property investment may continue to contract by 12% in 2026 [64][65]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation Projections: - CPI inflation is expected to rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.6% in 2026, while PPI inflation is projected to improve from -2.6% to -0.7% [5][72]. - The gradual reflation process is anticipated, with inflationary pressures expected to remain subdued [69][70]. - Monetary Policy: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to adopt a cautious approach to monetary easing, with potential rate cuts and fiscal measures to support economic growth [77]. Additional Insights - Current Account Dynamics: - The current account surplus is expected to increase, driven by structural growth in high-tech manufacturing exports and a focus on self-reliance amid geopolitical tensions [27][30]. - Long-term Economic Transition: - The transition from a property and infrastructure-driven economy to one focused on consumption and services is still in its early stages and may take years to fully realize [11][12]. - Government Initiatives: - Recent government policies, including a consumer goods trade-in program, aim to stimulate consumption but may only provide short-term support [57][58]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the outlook for the Chinese economy in 2026, highlighting both opportunities and challenges across various sectors.