亚洲观察-2026 年展望：应对 “中国冲击”-Asia Views_ 2026 Outlook – Coping with the China Shock

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook for Asia in 2026, focusing on the resilience of major economies despite challenges such as US tariffs and structural issues in China [2][3]. Core Insights 1. Resilience of Asia's Economies: Major economies in Asia showed resilience in 2025, supported by falling food and energy prices, easing financial conditions, and strong exports, particularly from Taiwan and mainland China [2][3]. 2. China's Economic Challenges: China's new five-year plan faces significant structural problems, including a struggling housing market and declining consumer spending. However, exports remain strong, with a goods trade surplus of $1 trillion [3][10]. 3. Export Growth: China's export volume growth is expected to remain in the high single digits, driven by government efforts to enhance trade agreements and leverage its dominance in rare earth refining [3][10]. 4. Regional Economic Models: Other Asian economies may need to reassess their growth models due to China's unique economic structure, which emphasizes manufacturing over consumption. This could lead to challenges for countries that traditionally followed China's lead [8][10]. 5. Inflation Trends: Regional inflation concerns have eased, with inflation returning to pre-COVID levels in most Asian economies. Japan is expected to see a decrease in inflation, while China and India may experience a rise due to normalization of food prices [14][18]. 6. Monetary Policy Outlook: Policymakers in Asia are likely to support domestic demand through tentative easing measures, with expected rate cuts in several countries including Korea, China, and Thailand [19][22]. 7. AI Investment Impact: Taiwan and South Korea are benefiting from a surge in AI investment, particularly from the US, which is significantly boosting GDP growth in Taiwan [36][38]. 8. India's Investment Climate: India is poised for a rebound in private investment as monetary conditions improve and the government aims to reduce high US tariffs [41][42]. 9. ASEAN Economic Challenges: ASEAN economies face mixed success in addressing policy challenges, with Indonesia's growth aspirations constrained by fiscal policies and Malaysia benefiting from Chinese investments [46][48]. Additional Important Points - Currency Strength: Regional currencies are expected to appreciate against the USD, with the Chinese Yuan, Taiwanese Dollar, and South Korean Won projected to strengthen [19][24]. - Fiscal Policy Trends: Increased defense spending is anticipated across East Asian economies due to regional tensions, impacting fiscal balances [19][22]. - Growth Forecasts: Goldman Sachs forecasts for 2026 GDP growth are generally above consensus, with notable expectations for Taiwan (4.4%) and India (6.7%) [51][52]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the economic landscape and potential investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region for 2026.