台积电- 人工智能支撑至 2027 年的多年增长展望；维持 “买入” 评级（上限价）；目标价上调至新台币 2,330 元

TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Company: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - Ticker: 2330.TW - Market Cap: NT$41.1 trillion / $1.3 trillion - Current Price: NT$1,585.00 - 12-Month Price Target: NT$2,330.00 (47% upside) [1] Key Industry Insights - AI as Growth Driver: AI is identified as a multi-year growth engine for TSMC, with silicon demand expected to outpace supply through 2027 due to exponential growth in token consumption [2][20] - Capacity Tightness: Anticipated capacity tightness will persist, leading to accelerated revenue and capital expenditures (capex) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue Growth: TSMC's revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, up from previous estimates of 22% for both years [2][20] - Capex Forecast: Total capex is expected to exceed US$150 billion from 2026 to 2028, with 2026E capex raised to US$46 billion and 2027E capex to US$54 billion [3][21] - Gross Margin (GM): Projected GM for 2026 and 2027 is now 60.4% and 60.6%, respectively, indicating structural improvement despite higher capex [4][22] Earnings Estimates - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to reach NT$82.56 in 2026 and NT$105.93 in 2027, reflecting an increase from previous estimates [6][40] - EBITDA Growth: EBITDA is projected to grow significantly, with 2026E EBITDA at NT$3,368.47 million and 2027E at NT$4,324.30 million [6][18] Capacity and Technology Developments - Node Transition: The transition from 5nm to 3nm nodes is expected to be fully loaded in 2026/2027, driven by AI GPU and ASIC demand [20] - CoWoS Capacity: CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is forecasted to reach 1,275k wafers in 2026 and 2,310k wafers in 2027, representing significant year-over-year growth [25][39] Market Dynamics - Investor Concerns: Key debates include the sustainability of 60% GM, the extent of 3nm expansion, and the timing of capex increases [26] - Geopolitical Stability: A stable geopolitical environment is deemed necessary to prevent valuation discounts and support earnings visibility [27] Conclusion - Investment Recommendation: TSMC is rated as a "Buy" with a revised price target of NT$2,330, supported by strong AI demand, ongoing productivity improvements, and a favorable capex outlook [1][27]