小米-2026 年电动汽车出货目标设定为 55 万辆

Summary of Xiaomi (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi Corporation - Ticker: 1810.HK - Market Cap: HK$1,049,183 million (US$134,663 million) [2] Key Points from the Conference Call EV Shipment Target - 2026 EV Delivery Target: Chairman Mr. Jun Lei announced a target of 550,000 units, representing a year-over-year increase of over 34% [1][1] - Investor Expectations: The target is below investor expectations, which ranged from 600,000 to 700,000 units, and below Citi's estimate of 700,000 units [1][1] - Capacity Analysis: The company has the capacity to support over 600,000 deliveries based on a December 2025 run rate of over 50,000 units per month [1][1] - Backlog and Orders: Actual backlog is estimated to be less than 200,000 units, with orders stabilizing at approximately 20,000 units per month by year-end. A pickup in orders is expected in Q2 following the launch of new EV editions [1][1] Financial Impact - Scenario Analysis: A 21% cut in EV shipments could lead to a RMB 5.4 billion impact on EV operating profit, equating to an 11% impact on adjusted net profit for 2026 [1][1] Valuation - Valuation Method: Xiaomi shares are valued at HK$50.00 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation based on 2026 estimates [4][4] - Valuation Multiples: The SOTP valuation includes 18.9x for core smartphone, IoT, and internet services business earnings, and 1.5x for smart EV sales, which is higher than industry peers due to better average selling prices (ASP) [4][4] Risks - Downside Risks: Key risks that could hinder reaching the target price include: 1. Increased competition in the smartphone market 2. Lower-than-expected market share gains from Huawei 3. Rising expenses related to new store expansions 4. Rapidly increasing interest rates leading to de-rating [5][5] Investment Rating - Current Rating: Buy - Target Price: HK$50.00, indicating an expected total return of 24.1% [2][2] Additional Insights - Expectation Management: The company aims to reset expectations at the beginning of the year, indicating a strategic approach to managing investor sentiment [1][1] - Future Visibility: The market is awaiting more visibility on the launch of new EV editions and updates on the EV business strategy [1][1]