中国旅游业-2026 年开门红：休闲旅游需求稳健，春节假期海南免税消费强劲-China Tourism A Good Start to 2026 Decent Leisure Travel Demand Strong Hainan DFS During New Year Holiday

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: China Tourism - Domestic Tourism Performance: During the 2026 New Year Holiday (January 1-3, 2026), China saw 142 million domestic tourists and tourism revenue of RMB 84.8 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of +5.2% in tourist numbers and +6.4% in revenue compared to 2024, and +15.1% and +12.3% respectively compared to 2019 [1][2] - Per Capita Spending: Per capita spending improved by 1.1% compared to 2024, reaching 97.6% of 2019 levels [1][2] - Transportation Trends: Nationwide passenger throughput increased by 17.9% year-over-year, with significant growth in railway (+52.6%), self-drive (+14.6%), and flights (+10.4%) [2][16] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan Duty-Free Performance: Hainan's offshore duty-free sales reached RMB 712 million during the New Year Holiday, marking a 129% year-over-year increase, driven by a 61% increase in the number of buyers and a 43% increase in per capita spending [3][17] - Daily Sales Average: The average daily sales during this period were RMB 237 million, attributed to favorable duty-free policies and promotional events [3][17] Outbound and Inbound Travel - Cross-Border Travel Growth: The average daily cross-border travel volume increased by 28.6% year-over-year, reaching 2.205 million person-times, with mainland Chinese travelers showing a 39.1% increase [4][18] - Positive Outlook: The momentum in inbound travel is expected to continue into 2026, positively impacting domestic tourism, including attractions and lodging [4] Company Recommendations - Preferred Companies: The report highlights a preference for investing in Atour, H World, and China Tourism Group Duty Free [1] Risks and Challenges - Potential Risks for Atour: High volatility in stock performance, travel-related impacts from natural disasters or pandemics, prolonged economic downturns, intense competition, and regulatory risks [20][22] - Risks for China Tourism Group Duty Free: Unfavorable duty-free policies, slow passenger flow, and loss of pricing advantage due to changes in import tariffs and competition from foreign operators [23][24] Valuation Insights - Atour Target Price: The target price for Atour is set at USD 45.00 based on a 14x EV/EBITDA multiple, reflecting its growth and competitiveness [20] - CTG Duty Free Valuation: The target price for CTG Duty Free is RMB 78, based on a DCF valuation that captures long-term growth potential [23][26] - H World Target Price: The target price for H World is set at HKD 38.50, reflecting its industry leadership [28][30] Conclusion - The tourism sector in China is showing strong recovery signs, particularly in domestic travel and duty-free sales, with positive growth trends expected to continue. However, potential risks related to economic conditions and competition must be monitored closely.