亚洲经济-2026 年核心主题-Asia Economics-Key Themes for 2026

Summary of Key Themes for 2026 Industry Overview - Region: Asia Pacific - Focus Economies: China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Australia Key Themes General Asia - Recovery expected to broaden out to non-tech exports [2][7] - Nominal GDP growth forecast to improve from 4.9% in 4Q25 to 5.8% in 4Q26 [8][36] China - Divergence between macroeconomic challenges (deflation) and positive microeconomic developments [2][38] - Expected easing of deflationary pressures through a recovery in non-tech exports and market share gains [38][55] - Policymakers are focusing on cutting excess capacity and boosting domestic consumption to address deflation [48][60] - Population growth has turned negative, impacting demand in the property sector [39][41] India - Anticipated as a surprise turnaround story for 2026 with expected nominal GDP growth returning to double digits [2][82] - Concerns over rupee weakness and corporate revenue growth are seen as overblown [84][93] - Expected improvements in consumption and export growth, aided by a potential US-India trade deal [94][95] - Policy easing, including income tax cuts and interest rate reductions, expected to support consumer spending [95][107] Japan - Cautious approach from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with moderate fiscal expansion expected to sustain nominal GDP growth [2][7] Korea - Broadening growth and continued reform renaissance anticipated [2][7] Indonesia - Capital expenditure (capex) cycle remains a drag on growth [2][7] Australia - Interest rates expected to end the year lower, not higher [2][7] Additional Insights - Non-tech exports recovery is crucial for Asia's economic momentum, driven by easing trade tensions and improving US domestic demand [18][25] - The expected recovery in non-tech exports will positively impact capex momentum, job creation, and wage growth [8][26][29] - The macroeconomic environment in Asia is expected to improve as disinflationary pressures ease, leading to stronger corporate revenue growth [36][93] Conclusion - The outlook for 2026 presents a mixed picture across Asia, with significant opportunities in India and challenges in China. The overall recovery is expected to broaden beyond the tech sector, supported by policy measures and improving economic conditions.