美国经济分-2026 年通胀展望：向目标迈进-US Economics Analyst_ 2026 Inflation Outlook_ Traveling Toward Target

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US economic outlook, specifically the inflation forecast for 2026 and its implications for monetary policy and investment decisions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Current Inflation Status: Core PCE inflation is at 2.8% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's target, primarily due to unexpected tariff impacts rather than strong underlying cost pressures [2][5][6]. 2. Future Inflation Expectations: - Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease to 2.1% by December 2026 and 2.2% on a Q4/Q4 basis, which is 30 basis points below the Bloomberg consensus and FOMC forecasts [2][26]. - CPI inflation is projected to be 2.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis, which is 60 basis points below the Bloomberg consensus [2][26]. 3. Factors Influencing Disinflation: - Tariff Impact: The contribution of tariffs to inflation is expected to decrease from 0.5 percentage points currently to 0.2 percentage points by December 2026, after peaking at 0.8 percentage points in mid-2026 [6][7]. - Shelter Inflation: Anticipated to fall from 3.7% year-over-year to 2.3% by December 2026, which is below pre-pandemic levels [10][16]. - Wage Growth: Wage growth has slowed to target-consistent levels, which will exert downward pressure on nonhousing services inflation [11][14]. 4. Risks to Inflation Forecasts: - The risks appear balanced, with potential for both upward and downward adjustments due to tariffs and consumer cost burdens [31]. - Data quality concerns persist, with a 20% decline in the number of prices collected for the CPI, leading to increased variability in inflation data [3][45]. Additional Important Insights 1. Data Collection Issues: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reduced its price collection efforts, which may affect the reliability of inflation data moving forward [3][45]. 2. Healthcare Inflation: Healthcare services inflation is expected to rise from 2.6% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, influenced by higher supply and labor costs [11]. 3. Monthly Inflation Forecasts: - For December 2025, core PCE inflation is forecasted at 0.25% and core CPI at 0.28%, reflecting distortions from delayed data collection [33][37]. - For January 2026, core PCE inflation is expected to be 0.27% and core CPI 0.26%, influenced by typical seasonal price increases [37]. Conclusion - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests a return to near-target inflation levels, driven by a combination of reduced tariff impacts, softening shelter inflation, and moderated wage growth. However, ongoing data collection challenges and potential risks from tariffs remain critical factors for investors to monitor.