香港房地产-2026 年选股：香港房东更看好写字楼而非零售物业-Hong Kong Property -HK Landlords Stock Picking for 2026 Office over Retail

Summary of Hong Kong Property Market Conference Call Industry Overview - Focus: Hong Kong Property Market, specifically Office and Retail sectors - Key Preference: Office sector is preferred over retail due to improving vacancy rates and rental conditions in Central Hong Kong [1][10] Key Insights on Office Sector - 2026 Rental Forecast: Central office rents expected to increase by +3% (compared to -2% in 2025), while overall office rents projected to decline by -3% [3] - Demand Drivers: Increased demand from tech companies, asset management, and wealth management firms is anticipated to help cap rate compression [3][9] - Vacancy Trends: Office vacancies are declining, with Central benefiting first from the recovery [10] Key Insights on Retail Sector - 2026 Sales Forecast: Retail sales expected to rise by +3% (up from +2% in 2025), but rental rates projected to decrease by -3% [4] - Visitor Trends: Increased visitation from mainlanders to Hong Kong is noted, but challenges include competition from Shenzhen and mainland e-commerce [4] - Risks: Rising unemployment rates pose a risk to retail sales recovery [4] Company-Specific Updates Hongkong Land (HKLD.SI) - Rating: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of USD 7.60 (previously USD 6.50) [5][20] - Key Drivers: Strong execution in capital recycling, stabilizing rentals in Central, and transformation into an asset manager [20][21] - Earnings Revisions: Slight adjustments in EPS estimates for FY25/FY26/FY27E, with a projected mid-single-digit growth in DPS [25][26] Hang Lung Properties (HLP) - Rating: Overweight with a price target of HKD 10.70 (previously HKD 10.50) [5][42] - Growth Drivers: Positive tenant sales growth in China, expansion of retail space, and a new capital-efficient strategy [42][43] - Earnings Revisions: Adjustments in EPS estimates reflecting improved operating conditions [48][49] Swire Properties - Rating: Upgraded to Overweight with a price target of HKD 23.00 (previously HKD 20.00) [5][52] - Key Factors: Improving office fundamentals, resilient retail sales in China, and active capital recycling initiatives [52][53] - Earnings Revisions: Slight increases in profit estimates for FY25/FY26/FY27E [59][61] Hysan Development - Rating: Upgraded to Equal-weight with a price target of HKD 19.00 [5][63] - Market Position: Gaining market share in Causeway Bay, with new developments expected to enhance foot traffic [63] - Concerns: Potential negative rental reversion and dividend cut risks due to financial obligations [63] Link REIT - Rating: Downgraded to Equal-weight with a price target of HKD 37.00 (previously HKD 48.00) [5][28] - Challenges: Persisting negative rental reversion and competition from e-commerce and rising unemployment [28][36] - Earnings Revisions: Adjustments in EPU and DPU estimates reflecting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [39][40] Wharf REIC - Rating: Underweight due to market share losses and persistent negative reversion [5][14] - Risks: Tenant retention issues and competition from luxury retail in mainland China [14] Conclusion - The Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the office sector, while the retail sector faces significant challenges. Companies with strong capital recycling strategies and exposure to the Central office market are favored for investment.