中国房地产周评-交易额同比下降约 30%；政策支持与减税开启新年-China Property Weekly Wrap_ Week 1 Wrap - Transactions c.30% below prior year level; Supportive notions and tax cuts to kick off new year

Summary of China Property Weekly Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese property sector, highlighting recent market activities and policy changes affecting the industry. Key Highlights 1. Central Level Policies: - Emphasis on stabilizing market expectations in the property sector due to housing's role as a financial asset and household wealth repository [1] - Policy easing is deemed necessary to align with market expectations and prevent speculation cycles [1] - Recent tax cuts include a reduction in VAT on properties held for less than two years from 5% to 3%, marking the first reduction since 2016 [1] 2. Market Activity: - Transaction volumes in the primary market decreased by 18% week-over-week (wow) and 33% year-over-year (yoy), while secondary market transactions fell by 29% wow and 27% yoy [2] - Overall market activities softened, with secondary visitation down 9% wow and new listing supply down 5% wow [2] - Market sentiment remained stable, with price cuts holding at a ratio of approximately 15 times those with price increases [2] 3. Key Data Points: - New home sales volume averaged -18% wow and -33% yoy; new home search activities increased by 1.5% wow [5] - Secondary transactions averaged -29% wow and -27% yoy [5] - Inventory balance increased by 0.1% wow, with inventory months at 28.7, compared to an average of 28.0 in December 2025 [13] 4. Valuation Insights: - Stronger state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers saw share prices increase by 6% wow, with notable performers like Jinmao (+9% wow) and Greentown (+8% wow) [25] - Offshore coverage developers traded at an average 33% discount to end-2026 estimated net asset value (NAV) [25] - Onshore coverage developers traded at an average 13% discount to end-2026 estimated NAV [25] 5. Completions and New Starts: - Completions are expected to show a mid-single-digit percentage (MSD) improvement in December 2025, contrasting with a -25% to -18% yoy decline in previous months [18] - New starts are anticipated to decline steeply, reflecting land sales trends and cement shipment ratios [18] Additional Insights - The report indicates a potential decline in home appliance sales based on secondary sales trends in approximately 20 cities [18] - The overall market remains under pressure, with significant year-over-year declines in both new and existing home sales expected to continue into the next quarter [18] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the current state of the Chinese property market, including policy impacts, market activity, and valuation trends, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and stakeholders in the sector.