IT 硬件- 台湾调研核心要点-IT Hardware-Taiwan Trip

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: IT Hardware, specifically focusing on North America - Key Trends: Rising memory costs, HDD supply shortages, and strong demand for AI servers are shaping the current landscape Core Insights 1. iPhone Demand: iPhone strength is expected to continue into CY26, with December 2025 tracking 20-40% year-over-year growth in China, partly due to Huawei's decline [13][11] 2. HDD Supply Shortage: The HDD supply shortage is worsening, now projected to be 200EB short of demand over the next 12 months, up from previous estimates of 100-150EB [12][15] 3. Price Increases: Most hardware OEMs, except Apple, are expected to raise product prices significantly in the first half of CY26 to offset rising memory costs, which may lead to unit declines in Android smartphones and Windows PCs for the full year [2][12] 4. AI Server Demand: Demand for AI servers remains robust, with over 30% year-over-year growth expected for general servers among cloud service providers (CSPs) in 2026 [2][21] 5. OEM Headcount Reductions: OEMs like DELL, HPQ, and HPE are likely to cut headcount to protect operating margins due to rising input costs and a shift towards AI servers, which have lower gross margins [2][12] Additional Important Insights 1. Memory Pricing: DRAM prices are expected to increase by 40-70% quarter-over-quarter in C1Q26, while NAND prices are projected to rise by 30-35% [9][8] 2. Apple's Strategy: Apple has secured favorable NAND pricing through a deal with KIOXIA but may face renegotiations in early 2026. Apple is also expected to introduce a low-cost MacBook at $599 in C1H26 to gain market share [7][14] 3. General Server Pricing: General server pricing is anticipated to increase significantly due to rising memory costs, which may lead to a strong C1Q26 followed by a weaker second half of the year [12][19] 4. PC Market Dynamics: PC demand is currently stable, with OEMs negotiating prices due to rising memory costs. Smaller OEMs may struggle to secure memory supply compared to larger players like DELL and HPQ [20][22] 5. Supply Chain Adjustments: HDD makers are reallocating capacity from consumer applications to cloud demand, and STX is raising consumer HDD prices by 10% each quarter to align margins with nearline drives [15][12] Conclusion The IT hardware industry is facing significant challenges and opportunities driven by rising memory costs, supply shortages, and shifting demand towards AI servers. Companies are adapting their strategies to navigate these dynamics, with a focus on maintaining margins and market share.