中国经济 - 经济或达 5% 增速但仍呈 K 型分化：2025 年第四季度数据前瞻-China Economics The Economy Seems Set to Hit 5 Growth But Remain K-Shaped DecQ4 Data Preview

We see 5% locked in for 2025 — The year-end PMI surprise further solidifies 5% growth for the past year, a forecast we have held since June. We estimate GDP growth at 4.6%YoY in 25Q4 with monthly indicators improving towards quarter-end. Industrial production could have strengthened to 5.6%YoY after the PMI beat. The new economy keeps powering ahead, while the construction pickup could benefit the old economy – operation ratios of both asphalt plants and cement mills picked up against year-end seasonality a ...