2026 年展望：偏好 AI 相关资产而非非 AI 资产；逻辑芯片与存储芯片均具吸引力-2026 Outlook Prefer AI to Non-AI; Both Logic and Memory Are Attractive

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on Semiconductor Industry Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is currently viewed as attractive, particularly in the context of AI technology and its applications in various sectors [3][18] - The focus is on AI semiconductors, with both logic and memory segments being highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [7][21] Core Insights - Top Investment Picks: - AI: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing - Memory: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix - Non-AI: Realtek, USI for smartphone/glasses, NAURA Tech, AMEC for China WFE [7] - Long-term Demand Drivers: - Tech Inflation: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin pressures for chip designers into 2026 [7] - AI Cannibalization: AI is anticipated to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness in certain sectors. The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI [7] - Tech Diffusion: The demand for AI semiconductors is expected to accelerate due to generative AI, impacting various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [7] - China AI Demand: The introduction of DeepSeek is expected to trigger demand for inferencing AI, although there are concerns about the sufficiency of domestic GPU supply [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Valuation Comparison: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.7 in 2025 to 19.4 in 2026, with EPS growth expected at 44% in 2025 and 32% in 2026 [8] - UMC's P/E ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease in EPS growth from -12% in 2025 to 2% in 2026 [8] - SMIC shows a significant increase in ROAE from 4% in 2025 to 9% in 2026, indicating potential recovery [8] Market Dynamics - Semi Cycle: The logic semi foundry utilization is currently at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating that the market is still recovering [13] - Non-AI Semi Growth: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was slow at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [14] - Inventory Trends: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index, suggesting a potential positive outlook for the sector [17] Additional Insights - Memory Prices: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, reinforcing the attractive view on Greater China technology semiconductors [18] - Investment Thesis: Regardless of whether AI GPU or AI ASIC technologies prevail, TSMC is positioned to benefit as a major foundry supplier [21] - Capex Trends: TSMC's capital expenditure is projected to be between $43 billion and $55 billion for 2026, reflecting ongoing investments in AI semiconductor capabilities [27] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the AI segment, presents significant investment opportunities. Key players like TSMC and memory manufacturers are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor the evolving landscape, including supply chain developments and pricing trends, to capitalize on potential growth.