National Bank of Canada (OTCPK:NBCD.F) Conference Transcript

Summary of National Bank of Canada Conference Call Company Overview - Company: National Bank of Canada (OTCPK:NBCD.F) - Date: January 06, 2026 Key Points Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 was characterized by uncertainty due to trade wars and a fragile labor market, leading to a pause in business investments in Canada, which is a major concern for the bank [4][5] - Despite these challenges, the Canadian economy has shown resilience, surprising many observers [4] - National security and geopolitical issues are highlighted as critical priorities for Canada, with a call for faster decision-making in nation-building and reindustrialization efforts [5][6] Trade and Interprovincial Barriers - There is a need for more collaboration to address trade barriers, particularly between provinces, and to expedite agreements with key allies [11][12] Financial Performance and ROE Targets - The bank targets a Return on Equity (ROE) of approximately 15% for 2026 and over 17% for 2027, with improvements expected from both capital deployment and organic growth [12][13] - The bank's capital generation is outpacing consumption, allowing for share buybacks and strategic acquisitions [13][14] Growth Strategies - The bank anticipates significant revenue synergies from the acquisition of CWB, particularly in commercial client fees and organic growth in wealth and capital markets [16][22] - There is a focus on domestic growth, with plans to accelerate growth outside Quebec starting in the second half of 2026 [25][26] Credit Quality and ABA - The bank is maintaining a conservative approach to credit quality in its Cambodian operations (ABA), with increased allowances for impaired loans and a focus on prudent management [31][32] - The Cambodian economy is expected to grow at around 4% in 2026, with a long-term potential of 7% [28][30] Capital Markets Outlook - The capital markets business had a strong performance in 2025, with a 58% growth in PTPP to CAD 2.2 billion, but a decline is expected in 2026 to a range of CAD 1.8 billion to CAD 2 billion [35] - The bank is well-positioned to take advantage of market opportunities, particularly in trading and investment banking [36][37] Cost Control and Efficiency - The bank is focusing on cost control, particularly in its retail business, and is exploring technology and digital onboarding to improve efficiency [71][74] - There is an emphasis on adapting the branch network to changing customer behaviors, with a shift towards cashless branches [76] Key Messages for Investors - The bank is proud of its execution in 2025 and is optimistic about 2026, focusing on client engagement and realizing synergies from recent acquisitions [78][79] - Acknowledgment of employee contributions and shareholder support is emphasized as crucial for future success [79] Additional Insights - The bank is open to tuck-in acquisitions, particularly in wealth management, but recognizes the complexities involved [57][58] - The current market environment is viewed as frothy, with a cautious approach to capital deployment in private credit [51][52]