券商研究框架-探寻产业变迁和投资价值

Summary of the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The brokerage industry currently has a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of approximately 1.47, which is around the 35th percentile historically, indicating a relative undervaluation and potential for valuation recovery [1][2] - Regulatory optimization is expected to enhance the asset-liability management of quality brokerages, leading to an increase in Return on Equity (ROE) [1][2] Key Projections for 2026 - The brokerage sector is anticipated to experience a market recovery, with trading activity and margin financing (two-in-one business) expected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [1][2] - The overall industry ROE is projected to rise to approximately 9%, while leading brokerages may achieve ROE levels of 11%-12% [1][2] Business Segments Brokerage Business - The brokerage business is experiencing cyclical weakening, with a price war leading to a decline in net commission rates, resulting in weak growth [1][5] - Margin financing, as a pro-cyclical indicator, is expected to maintain a good interest margin, contributing to significant growth in net interest income for brokerages [1][5] Investment Banking - A recovery in investment banking is expected in 2026, with an anticipated rebound in IPO and refinancing volumes, particularly benefiting leading firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and CICC [1][6][7] Asset Management - Following the new asset management regulations in 2018, the scale of brokerage asset management has stabilized and is expected to recover, although fixed-income products are unlikely to provide long-term support for profit growth [1][8] - Equity public funds are experiencing rapid growth post-fee reductions, driven by changes in resident wealth management demands [1][8] Recommended Stocks - Leading stocks in the sci-tech theme are recommended, with Guotai Junan as the top pick, followed by CICC H shares, benefiting from leading project reserves in the sci-tech board [1][3][9] - Guotai Junan has a PB of approximately 1.15, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [3][9] Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The brokerage industry's profitability model is primarily analyzed using the ROE-PB framework, with self-operated businesses accounting for about 40% of revenue, followed by brokerage services at 25% and investment banking at 15% [1][4] - Cost management has improved, with a decrease in management expense ratios and lower credit impairment losses since 2022, leading to better performance among listed brokerages [1][11] Future Outlook - The overall outlook for the securities industry in 2026 is optimistic, with expected growth rates around 20% from a low base, and an increase in industry ROE from 8% to 9% [1][13] - The valuation uplift potential is estimated to be between 30%-50%, with a focus on sci-tech themed stocks like Guotai Junan and CICC H shares [1][13]