从国内库存周期复盘看品牌服饰投资机会

Summary of the Conference Call on the Apparel Industry Industry Overview - The apparel industry inventory cycle is closely related to retail growth rates, with changes in retail growth indicating key trading strategies for stocks [1][2] - The industry has experienced various phases: active destocking, passive destocking, and recovery, influenced by economic conditions and consumer demand [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - Historical Inventory Cycles: - From Q4 2014 to Q1 2016, the industry transitioned from active to passive destocking due to weak demand caused by e-commerce impacts. Mid to high-end menswear and home textiles saw significant stock price increases, while the sports sector remained stable [3] - From Q2 2017 to Q2 2019, the industry shifted to active restocking as the domestic economy improved, leading to a recovery in retail sales. Sports and home textile sectors performed well, while mass brands and mid to high-end women's wear faced larger corrections [3] - The pandemic from 2020 to 2022 caused a valuation bottom, followed by a rebound in sales. However, fluctuations due to ongoing pandemic effects and weather conditions led to a slowdown in growth [3] - From Q3 2022 to Q1 2025, the industry is currently in a phase of both active and passive destocking, with a recovery in profitability expected despite a potential slowdown in retail growth in Q2 2024 [5] - Valuation Trends: - During peak periods, valuations for leading sports brands like Anta and Xtep exceeded 50 times earnings, while mid to high-end menswear brands reached around 30 times. Currently, valuations for apparel brands fluctuate between 10 to 20 times, with A-share apparel companies having a support level around 10 times [4][6] - Leading companies like Anta have seen valuations drop to around 13 times during downturns, indicating a relatively stable valuation floor [6][7] Future Outlook - The apparel industry is expected to transition towards active restocking or passive destocking by 2026, with a potential improvement in retail growth and manageable inventory risks. This could lead to a weak recovery in the market [8] - Companies with high operational efficiency and market sensitivity, such as Anta, are recommended for investment consideration [8] Additional Important Insights - The apparel industry's inventory cycle can be divided into four stages: recovery, overheating, stagflation, and recession, with key indicators including GDP growth and retail sales [2] - The relationship between retail growth and stock performance is critical, as fluctuations often signal market entry and exit points for investors [3]